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Prognosist
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Home England Premier League Newcastle — Arsenal

Match Newcastle vs Arsenal September 28, 2025 — Result and Stats

Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 28 Sep · 15:30
1:2
Full-time
Arsenal
Arsenal
W W W W W Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne Referee Jarred Gillett, Australia
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 76% · book 1.38
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 58% · book 1.82
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 1.87
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
0.45 – 2.01
Δ −1.56
Possession
36% – 64%
AI accuracy
5 / 9
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This clash features a defensively solid Newcastle hosting a more potent Arsenal side that has shown strong attacking form recently. Newcastle's home performances have been cautious with limited goal output, while Arsenal's away displays combine efficiency and attacking threat, suggesting a competitive but potentially tight encounter. The model leans slightly towards an Arsenal win given their overall strength and recent form, but the home side's resilience and venue advantage keep the draw well in play. Goals are expected but not in abundance, favoring markets around moderate scoring. Key angles include backing Arsenal to avoid defeat and considering under 2.5 goals as a value approach.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · ARS 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NEW
66' Elanga ↑ · Murphy
67' Osula ↑ · Woltemade
67' Trippier ↑ · Gordon
77' Lascelles ↑ · Livramento
90' Barnes ↑ · Joelinton
Subs used · ARS
46' Saliba ↑ · Mosquera
70' Martinelli ↑ · Saka
70' Merino ↑ · Calafiori
82' Ødegaard ↑ · Zubimendi
88' Lewis-Skelly ↑ · Trossard

📊 Statistics

NEW 12 ARS
36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.45
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.01
8
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Target
7
1
Shots off Target
7
7
Shots Inside Box
18
7
Corner Kicks
12
1
Offsides
0
8
Fouls
9
69%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

16 · 1 – 2
Nick Woltemade
Assist · Sandro Tonali · 1–0
34'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
William Saliba ↓ · Cristhian Mosquera ↑
Substitution 1
56'
Riccardo Calafiori
Yellow Card
Anthony Elanga ↓ · Jacob Murphy ↑
Substitution 1
66'
William Osula ↓ · Nick Woltemade ↑
Substitution 2
67'
Kieran Trippier ↓ · Anthony Gordon ↑
Substitution 3
67'
70'
Gabriel Martinelli ↓ · Bukayo Saka ↑
Substitution 2
70'
Mikel Merino ↓ · Riccardo Calafiori ↑
Substitution 3
Jamaal Lascelles ↓ · Valentino Livramento ↑
Substitution 4
77'
82'
Martin Ødegaard ↓ · Martín Zubimendi ↑
Substitution 4
Joelinton
Yellow Card
83'
84'
Mikel Merino
Assist · Declan Rice · 1–1
Dan Burn
Yellow Card
88'
88'
Myles Lewis-Skelly ↓ · Leandro Trossard ↑
Substitution 5
Harvey Barnes ↓ · Joelinton ↑
Substitution 5
90'
90+6'
Gabriel Magalhães
Assist · Martin Ødegaard · 1–2
Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Arsenal won 2–1 away at Newcastle. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 82% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 0.45. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 12 to 7. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Nick Woltemade (34'), Mikel Merino (84'), Gabriel Magalhães (90+6').

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 5 landed and 4 missed, for a net -0.64 units (Brier 0.148).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 5 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.38 76% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.82 58% Cashed +0.82 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.87 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.62 62% Cashed +0.62 Cashed
Home Team Total Under 0.5 2.88 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Team Total Over 0.5 1.27 70% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Home Win 3.37 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.62 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.27 49% Cashed +1.27 Cashed
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each 5 W · 4 L −0.64u −7% ROI