This clash features a defensively solid Newcastle hosting a more potent Arsenal side that has shown strong attacking form recently. Newcastle's home performances have been cautious with limited goal output, while Arsenal's away displays combine efficiency and attacking threat, suggesting a competitive but potentially tight encounter. The model leans slightly towards an Arsenal win given their overall strength and recent form, but the home side's resilience and venue advantage keep the draw well in play. Goals are expected but not in abundance, favoring markets around moderate scoring. Key angles include backing Arsenal to avoid defeat and considering under 2.5 goals as a value approach.
Post-match · 90 sec read
⛀ Lineups
NEW 4-3-3 · ARS 4-2-3-1Subs used · NEW
77'
Lascelles ↑
·
Livramento ↓
Lascelles ↑
·
Livramento ↓
📊 Statistics
NEW 1 – 2 ARS36%
Possession (%)
64%
0.45
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
2.01
8
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Target
7
1
Shots off Target
7
7
Shots Inside Box
18
7
Corner Kicks
12
1
Offsides
0
8
Fouls
9
69%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
2
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
⏱ Match events
16 · 1 – 2Nick Woltemade
Assist · Sandro Tonali · 1–0
34'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
William Saliba ↓ · Cristhian Mosquera ↑
Substitution 1
56'
▮
Riccardo Calafiori
Yellow Card
Anthony Elanga ↓ · Jacob Murphy ↑
Substitution 1
66'
William Osula ↓ · Nick Woltemade ↑
Substitution 2
67'
Kieran Trippier ↓ · Anthony Gordon ↑
Substitution 3
67'
70'
⇄
Gabriel Martinelli ↓ · Bukayo Saka ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⇄
Mikel Merino ↓ · Riccardo Calafiori ↑
Substitution 3
Jamaal Lascelles ↓ · Valentino Livramento ↑
Substitution 4
77'
82'
⇄
Martin Ødegaard ↓ · Martín Zubimendi ↑
Substitution 4
Joelinton
Yellow Card
83'
84'
⚽
Mikel Merino
Assist · Declan Rice · 1–1
Dan Burn
Yellow Card
88'
88'
⇄
Myles Lewis-Skelly ↓ · Leandro Trossard ↑
Substitution 5
Harvey Barnes ↓ · Joelinton ↑
Substitution 5
90'
90+6'
⚽
Gabriel Magalhães
Assist · Martin Ødegaard · 1–2
Full-time · 1 – 2
Match recap
Arsenal won 2–1 away at Newcastle. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 82% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.01 to 0.45. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 8, 7 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 12 to 7. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
On the scoresheet: Nick Woltemade (34'), Mikel Merino (84'), Gabriel Magalhães (90+6').
Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 5 landed and 4 missed, for a net -0.64 units (Brier 0.148).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
9 · 5 W · 4 L| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 1.38 | — | 76% | Cashed | +0.38 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.82 | — | 58% | Cashed | +0.82 | Cashed |
| Under 2.5 | 1.87 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 1.62 | — | 62% | Cashed | +0.62 | Cashed |
| Home Team Total Under 0.5 | 2.88 | — | 40% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Team Total Over 0.5 | 1.27 | — | 70% | Cashed | +0.27 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 3.37 | — | 25% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.62 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Away Win | 2.27 | — | 49% | Cashed | +1.27 | Cashed |
| Total · 9 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 5 W · 4 L | −0.64u | −7% ROI |