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⚽ Football 📰 News 📈 Forecasts 📅 Today 💹 Value Bets 🏅 Tipsters 🏆 Tournament

Football Value Bets Today

A football value bet is a betting opportunity where the estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds. Implied probability is simply what the odds translate into — decimal odds of 2.00 imply a 50% chance — so a selection has value when its true probability looks higher than the price suggests.

Prognosist compares AI-based match probabilities with available bookmaker odds to highlight potential market edge. Each value bet may include the estimated probability, the implied probability, the expected value (EV) and an odds comparison, where EV measures how much an outcome appears mispriced. A positive value does not guarantee a winning bet, but it can help identify selections where the price may be better than the underlying probability suggests. Use value bets as part of a disciplined betting strategy, not as a promise of profit, and never stake more than you can afford to lose.

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Value Bets

Picks where the model thinks the price is wrong — next 3 days across all leagues
29 picks
Scotland / Premiership
7 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
19:00 5 Sep
ST Mirren
Celtic
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
52.6%
42.0%
+10.6 pp
+25.2%
14:00 5 Sep
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
51.3%
43.5%
+7.9 pp
+18.1%
18:45 3 Sep
Hibernian
Heart Of Midlothian
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
62.8%
55.3%
+7.6 pp
+13.7%
14:00 5 Sep
Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Goals Total Under 2.5 goals
51.2%
45.5%
+5.8 pp
+12.6%
14:00 5 Sep
Rangers
Motherwell
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — Yes
64.0%
57.1%
+6.9 pp
+12.1%
19:00 2 Sep
Falkirk
Rangers
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
50.1%
45.5%
+4.6 pp
+10.2%
18:45 2 Sep
Celtic
Aberdeen
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
55.0%
50.0%
+5.0 pp
+10.0%
England / Premier League
5 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
19:00 4 Sep
Ipswich
Liverpool
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
51.2%
42.1%
+9.1 pp
+21.6%
14:00 5 Sep
Brighton
Leeds
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
62.6%
52.6%
+10.0 pp
+19.0%
14:00 5 Sep
Brentford
Sunderland
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
64.4%
55.6%
+8.9 pp
+16.0%
16:30 5 Sep
Hull City
Aston Villa
Goals Total Under 2.5 goals
59.5%
51.3%
+8.2 pp
+16.0%
14:00 5 Sep
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
57.7%
51.2%
+6.6 pp
+12.9%
Germany / Germany Bundesliga
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
13:30 5 Sep
Werder Bremen
RB Leipzig
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
53.2%
42.9%
+10.3 pp
+24.0%
13:30 5 Sep
Bayer Leverkusen
Union Berlin
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
56.2%
46.7%
+9.4 pp
+20.2%
16:30 5 Sep
FC Schalke 04
Bayern München
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
68.6%
58.7%
+10.0 pp
+17.0%
13:30 5 Sep
SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
65.4%
59.9%
+5.5 pp
+9.2%
Netherlands / Eredivisie
4 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
14:30 5 Sep
NEC Nijmegen
Feyenoord
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
61.2%
50.0%
+11.2 pp
+22.5%
18:00 5 Sep
Ajax
PSV Eindhoven
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
62.8%
52.4%
+10.4 pp
+19.9%
19:00 5 Sep
Willem II
Excelsior
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
67.7%
59.2%
+8.6 pp
+14.5%
18:00 4 Sep
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Goals Total Under 3.5 goals
64.5%
57.5%
+7.0 pp
+12.1%
Austria / Bundesliga
2 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:30 2 Sep
Red Bull Salzburg
Rapid Vienna
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
56.6%
46.7%
+9.9 pp
+21.1%
16:30 2 Sep
Austria Vienna
WSG Wattens
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
55.2%
48.5%
+6.7 pp
+13.7%
France / Ligue 1
2 matches
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
15:15 5 Sep
Lens
Lorient
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
69.2%
59.9%
+9.3 pp
+15.5%
18:45 5 Sep
Nice
Le Mans
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
60.7%
54.1%
+6.7 pp
+12.3%
Denmark / Superliga
1 match
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:00 3 Sep
FC Copenhagen
FC Nordsjaelland
Goals Total Over 3.5 goals
50.7%
42.0%
+8.7 pp
+20.6%
Italy / Serie A
1 match
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:45 5 Sep
AS Roma
Atalanta
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
59.8%
50.0%
+9.8 pp
+19.6%
Belgium / Jupiler Pro League
1 match
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:30 2 Sep
St. Truiden
Union St. Gilloise
Goals Total Over 2.5 goals
64.9%
56.2%
+8.8 pp
+15.6%
Spain / La Liga
1 match
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
19:00 3 Sep
Real Sociedad
Celta Vigo
Both Teams To Score Both teams to score — No
55.8%
48.9%
+6.9 pp
+14.2%
— / Czech Liga
1 match
▾
Time Match Bet Model Market Edge EV
18:00 2 Sep
Bohemians 1905
FK Jablonec
Goals Total Under 2.5 goals
61.5%
54.6%
+6.9 pp
+12.6%
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Value betting FAQ

What is a football value bet?

A value bet is a selection where the estimated probability of an outcome is higher than the probability implied by the bookmaker’s odds, which suggests the price may be in your favour.

How is expected value calculated?

Expected value compares the estimated probability of an outcome with the odds on offer. In simple terms, EV = (probability × (odds − 1)) − (1 − probability); a positive result points to potential edge over the long run.

Are value bets guaranteed to win?

No. A single bet can always lose regardless of the price. Value betting is a long-term approach for finding mispriced odds, not a promise of profit.

Why can AI probability differ from bookmaker odds?

Models and bookmakers weigh information differently — form, injuries, schedule and market movements. When the AI probability and the odds disagree, that gap is where potential value appears.