Arsenal beat Bayern München 3–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.72 to 0.69. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 18 graded markets, 9 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.96 units (Brier 0.144).
| Market | Odds | Closed | AI | Result | P/L · 1u | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 | 2.90 | — | 45% | Cashed | +1.90 | Cashed |
| Over 2.5 | 1.82 | — | 65% | Cashed | +0.82 | Cashed |
| BTTS Yes | 1.64 | — | 68% | Cashed | +0.64 | Cashed |
| Away Win | 3.25 | — | 33% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 1.25 | — | 85% | Cashed | +0.25 | Cashed |
| Double Chance X2 | 1.70 | — | 60% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Draw | 3.70 | — | 27% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Over 0.5 | 1.05 | — | 95% | Cashed | +0.05 | Cashed |
| AH Home +2 | 1.02 | — | 92% | Cashed | +0.02 | Cashed |
| Double Chance 1X | 1.40 | — | 67% | Cashed | +0.40 | Cashed |
| Home Win | 2.31 | — | 40% | Cashed | +1.31 | Cashed |
| Under 3.5 | 1.45 | — | 55% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Away 0 | 2.35 | — | 33% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 2.5 | 2.15 | — | 35% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| BTTS No | 2.34 | — | 32% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 0.5 | 14.00 | — | 5% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| Under 1.5 | 4.40 | — | 15% | Lost | −1.00 | Miss |
| AH Home 0 | 1.65 | — | 40% | Cashed | +0.65 | Cashed |
| Total · 18 markets @ 1u each | — | — | — | 9 W · 9 L | −2.96u | −16% ROI |
