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Home › England › Premier League › Brighton — Arsenal

Brighton vs Arsenal 3:0: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 L D W W W
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 14:00
3:0
Full-time
Arsenal
Arsenal
W W W L W Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Darren England
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 62% · book 1.80 ✓
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 52% · book 2.03 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.75 ✗
Total goals
3
3 · 0
Possession
40% – 60%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.80 — +12.3% better than the market.

Brighton face a tough test against an in-form Arsenal side riding a four-game winning streak. Despite Brighton's recent mixed results, their home momentum and higher expected goals suggest they can challenge Arsenal's defense. Arsenal's solid form and pressing edge make this a tactical battle likely to see goals.

  • Brighton's home energy contrasts Arsenal's away resilience
  • Arsenal's attacking pressure vs Brighton's compact block
  • Match pace hints at an open, goal-rich encounter

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.80 ✓ Cashed
AI 62% Implied 56% +0.80u
+80%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRI 4-2-3-1 · ARS 4-2-3-1
BRI · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · ARS 1 Verbruggen 24 Kadıoğlu 44 Vušković 4 Struijk 21 Boscagli 14 Baixauli ⚽ 26 Ayari 25 Gómez 13 Groß ⚽ 29 De Cuyper 19 Kostoulas ⚽ 1 Raya 12 Timber 15 Konsa 6 Magalhães 33 Calafiori 41 Rice 39 Guimarães 7 Saka 8 Ødegaard 17 Tzolis 29 Havertz
Subs used · BRI
76' Costinha ↑ · Kadıoğlu ↓
76' Rutter ↑ · Kostoulas ↓
85' Yalcouyé ↑ · Andrés ↓
86' O'Riley ↑ · Gomez ↓
86' Svoboda ↑ · Struijk ↓
Subs used · ARS
60' Zubimendi ↑ · Timber ↓
60' Merino ↑ · Guimarães ↓
73' Gyökeres ↑ · Odegaard ↓
73' Eze ↑ · Tzolis ↓
81' Dowman ↑ · Saka ↓

Statistics

BRI 3 – 0 ARS
40%
Possession (%)
60%
17
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Target
2
9
Shots off Target
4
10
Shots Inside Box
10
5
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
2
13
Fouls
11
4
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

18 · 3 – 0
Pascal Groß
Assist · Charalampos Kostoulas · 1–0
⚽
31'
Charalampos Kostoulas
Yellow Card
▮
33'
Charalampos Kostoulas
Assist · Diego Gomez · 2–0
⚽
45'
Ferdi Kadıoğlu
Yellow Card
▮
45+1'
Half-time · 2 – 0
Chema Andrés
Assist · Pascal Groß · 3–0
⚽
57'
60'
⇄
Martín Zubimendi ↓ · Jurriën Timber ↑
Substitution 1
60'
⇄
Mikel Merino ↓ · Bruno Guimarães ↑
Substitution 2
Pascal Struijk
Yellow Card
▮
71'
73'
⇄
Viktor Gyökeres ↓ · Martin Odegaard ↑
Substitution 3
73'
⇄
Eberechi Eze ↓ · Christos Tzolis ↑
Substitution 4
Costinha ↓ · Ferdi Kadıoğlu ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
76'
Georginio Rutter ↓ · Charalampos Kostoulas ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
76'
81'
⇄
Max Dowman ↓ · Bukayo Saka ↑
Substitution 5
Malick Yalcouyé ↓ · Chema Andrés ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
85'
Matt O'Riley ↓ · Diego Gomez ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
Michael Svoboda ↓ · Pascal Struijk ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
86'
Maxim De Cuyper
Yellow Card
▮
90+1'
90+7'
▮
Declan Rice
Yellow Card
Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

Brighton beat Arsenal 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 11, 5 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Pascal Groß (31'), Charalampos Kostoulas (45'), Chema Andrés (57').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +1.16 units (Brier 0.247).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 2.5 1.80 1.73 62% Cashed +0.80 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 2.03 2.10 52% Cashed +1.03 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.75 1.70 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 1.75 1.70 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.01 2.05 40% Cashed +1.01 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.00 2.10 38% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.94 2.77 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 4.42 4.78 28% Cashed +3.42 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.20 1.19 72% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.24 1.22 82% Cashed +0.24 Cashed
Draw 3.75 3.91 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 3.28 3.46 28% Cashed +2.28 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.38 1.40 58% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.82 4.20 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.31 1.28 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +1.16u +8% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
BRI – ARS @ 1.80
+12.3%
Edge
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