Arsenal vs Chelsea 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 1.75 — +13.3% better than the market.

Arsenal arrive with strong home momentum, having won their last match and maintaining a perfect points record at home. Chelsea, despite recent wins, show a slight form gap disadvantage and may struggle to contain Arsenal’s attacking threat at the Emirates. The fixture’s history suggests a lively encounter with goals likely, supported by balanced xG figures and a moderate pace hint from the odds.

Arsenal’s home edge in pressing and creativity
Chelsea’s resilience but defensive vulnerabilities
Potential for open play and goal-scoring chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 1.75 ✓ Cashed

AI 65% Implied 57% +0.75u

+75%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ARS 4-2-3-1 · CHE 3-4-2-1

ARS · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · CHE

29 Havertz ⚽

Subs used · ARS

67'

Hincapié ↑ ·

Calafiori ↓

67'

Zubimendi ↑ ·

Lewis-Skelly ↓

77'

Merino ↑ ·

Odegaard ↓

78'

Gyökeres ↑ ·

Havertz ↓

90'

Madueke ↑ ·

Saka ↓

Subs used · CHE

60'

Chavarria ↑ ·

Hato ↓

60'

Gusto ↑ ·

Lavia ↓

81'

Gonçalves ↑ ·

Neto ↓

87'

Welbeck ↑ ·

Rogers ↓

Statistics

ARS 2 – 1 CHE

55%

Possession (%)

45%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 2 – 1

⚽

Morgan Rogers

Assist · Jorrel Hato · 0–1

14'

▮

João Pedro

Yellow Card

Kai Havertz

Assist · Declan Rice · 1–1

⚽

25'

45'

▮

Cole Palmer

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

Martin Odegaard

Assist · Christos Tzolis · 2–1

⚽

50'

Christos Tzolis

Yellow Card

▮

58'

▮

Maxence Lacroix

Yellow Card

60'

⇄

Pep Chavarria ↓ · Jorrel Hato ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

Malo Gusto ↓ · Romeo Lavia ↑

Substitution 2

Piero Hincapié ↓ · Riccardo Calafiori ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

Martín Zubimendi ↓ · Myles Lewis-Skelly ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

Mikel Merino ↓ · Martin Odegaard ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

Viktor Gyökeres ↓ · Kai Havertz ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

78'

81'

⇄

Estêvão Willian Almeida de Oliveira Gonçalves ↓ · Pedro Neto ↑

Substitution 3

83'

▮

Morgan Rogers

Yellow Card

87'

⇄

Danny Welbeck ↓ · Morgan Rogers ↑

Substitution 4

Noni Madueke ↓ · Bukayo Saka ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

Mikel Merino

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Morgan Rogers (2'), Kai Havertz (25'), Martin Odegaard (50').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -4.65 units (Brier 0.121).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.80	1.73	65%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.75	1.72	65%	Cashed	+0.75	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.08	2.12	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.72	1.72	53%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.00	2.14	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	2.04	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.92	2.75	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.25	1.22	85%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Away Win	4.88	4.88	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.19	1.18	78%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Draw	3.75	3.85	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.56	3.45	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.38	1.40	55%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.26	1.29	53%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.78	4.20	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−4.65u	−31% ROI

Arsenal vs Chelsea 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled