Match Mexico vs England July 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 3.13 — +9.8% better than the market.

England arrives with strong momentum, boasting a flawless recent run and a rock-solid defense that kept clean sheets throughout qualification. Mexico’s lack of recent form data adds uncertainty, but playing at a neutral venue levels the field somewhat. England’s attacking sharpness and pressing edge could challenge Mexico’s defense, while the match pace hints at a moderately open game with chances for both sides.

England’s defensive resilience and attacking efficiency stand out.
Mexico’s unknown form adds unpredictability.
Neutral ground may reduce home advantage, favoring tactical discipline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 3.13 ✗ Lost

AI 35% Implied 32% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MEX 4-3-3 · ENG 4-2-3-1

MEX · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · ENG

16 Quiñones ⚽

Subs used · MEX

46'

Alvarez ↑ ·

Montes ↓

61'

Gimenez ↑ ·

Mora ↓

61'

Gutierrez ↑ ·

Romo ↓

79'

Fidalgo ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

81'

Martinez ↑ ·

Quinones ↓

Subs used · ENG

57'

Stones ↑ ·

Saka ↓

74'

Spence ↑ ·

O'Reilly ↓

75'

Burn ↑ ·

Anderson ↓

90'

Rogers ↑ ·

Kane ↓

📊 Statistics

MEX 2 – 3 ENG

67%

Possession (%)

33%

1.87

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.55

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

92%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

21 · 2 – 3

▮

D. Rice

Yellow Card

36'

⚽

J. Bellingham

Assist · B. Saka · 0–1

38'

⚽

J. Bellingham

Assist · H. Kane · 0–2

J. Quinones

1–2

⚽

42'

Half-time · 1 – 2

E. Alvarez ↓ · C. Montes ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

54'

▮

J. Quansah

Red Card

57'

⇄

J. Stones ↓ · B. Saka ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⚽

H. Kane (P)

Penalty · 1–3

S. Gimenez ↓ · G. Mora ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

B. Gutierrez ↓ · L. Romo ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

68'

▮

M. Guehi

Yellow Card

R. Jimenez (P)

Penalty · 2–3

⚽

69'

J. Sanchez

Yellow Card

▮

71'

72'

▮

N. O'Reilly

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

D. Spence ↓ · N. O'Reilly ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

D. Burn ↓ · E. Anderson ↑

Substitution 3

A. Fidalgo ↓ · J. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

79'

G. Martinez ↓ · J. Quinones ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

90'

⇄

M. Rogers ↓ · H. Kane ↑

Substitution 4

J. Vasquez

Yellow Card

▮

90+8'

▮

J. Henderson

Yellow Card

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

England won 3–2 away at Mexico. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 92% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 6, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 12 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Bellingham (36'), J. Bellingham (38'), J. Quinones (42'), H. Kane (60'), R. Jimenez (69'). J. Quansah was sent off in the 54' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.17 units (Brier 0.223).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.38	2.38	49%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.98	2.00	53%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Away Win	2.45	2.53	37%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
BTTS No	1.79	1.78	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.19	2.10	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.75	2.75	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.70	1.75	37%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Home Win	3.13	3.05	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.56	1.54	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.50	4.50	29%	Cashed	+3.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	1.42	74%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Draw	3.20	3.10	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	1.36	65%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.57	1.57	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	1.07	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.18	1.18	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	7.50	7.52	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.17u	−1% ROI