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Home › World › World Cup › Mexico — England

Predictions by Market: Mexico vs England

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Mexico
Mexico
Home · last 5 W W W W L
Kick-off
Mon 06 Jul · 01:00
2:3
Full-time
England
England
W W W L W Away · last 5
Referee A. Faghani

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · MEX
35%
Best 3.11
Draw
28%
Best 3.18
Away Win · ENG
37%
Best 2.64
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.13
Fair odds
2.85
book 3.13 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (37%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win Best in group
Probability 36.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Home Win
Probability 35.1%
Odds 3.13
Show model details
Implied probability 32%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 49.3%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 1.5
Probability 26.5%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 28.6%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 71.4%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 0.5
Probability 8.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.6%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
✓ AH Home 0
Probability 35.1%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.8%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 36.8%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 59%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
MEX – ENG @ 3.13
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →