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Home World World Cup Mexico — England

Predictions Mexico vs England July 6, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

World   /   World Cup Value pick inside
Mexico
Mexico
Home · last 5 W W W W L
Kick-off
Mon 06 Jul · 01:00
2:3
Full-time
England
England
W W W L W Away · last 5
Referee A. Faghani
Home Win · MEX
35%
Best 3.11
Draw
28%
Best 3.18
Away Win · ENG
37%
Best 2.64
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.13
Fair odds
2.85
book 3.13 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 35% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (37%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 36.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 35.1%
Odds 3.13
Show model details
Implied probability 32%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 49.3%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 26.5%
Odds 2.75
Show model details
Implied probability 36.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 28.6%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 73.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 50.7%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 91.3%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 71.4%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 8.7%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.98
Show model details
Implied probability 50.6%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 35.1%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 36.8%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 59%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 63.3%
Odds 1.56
Show model details
Implied probability 64.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2 Top pick
Probability 64.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
MEX – ENG @ 3.13
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →