Match Valencia vs Celta Vigo April 5, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Valencia hosts Celta Vigo in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and offensive threat. Valencia’s home edge is moderate, suggesting a balanced contest but with Celta’s sharper attack likely to challenge the Mestalla defense. Recent form favors Valencia slightly, adding home momentum to the mix. Expect a tactical battle with Celta pressing high and Valencia relying on set-pieces and quick transitions.

Celta’s offensive edge against Valencia’s defense
Valencia’s home form and set-piece threat
Moderate pace hinted by odds, favoring a tactical game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · CEL 3-4-3

VAL · 4-4-2 3-4-3 · CEL

17 Ramazani

Subs used · VAL

63'

Sadiq ↑ ·

Duro ↓

63'

Rendall ↑ ·

Almeida ↓

63'

Ugrinic ↑ ·

Nunez ↓

63'

Beltran ↑ ·

Guerra ↓

78'

Danjuma ↑ ·

Gaya ↓

Subs used · CEL

46'

Swedberg ↑ ·

Alvarez ↓

46'

El Abdellaoui ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

46'

Lopez ↑ ·

Duran ↓

71'

Iglesias ↑ ·

Jutgla ↓

88'

Lago ↑ ·

Mingueza ↓

📊 Statistics

VAL 2 – 3 CEL

42%

Possession (%)

58%

0.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.04

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 2 – 3

G. Rodriguez

1–0

⚽

12'

43'

▮

Javi Rodríguez

Yellow Card

44'

▮

Marcos Alonso

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

W. Swedberg ↓ · H. Alvarez ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

J. El Abdellaoui ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 2

46'

⇄

F. Lopez ↓ · P. Duran ↑

Substitution 3

56'

⚽

I. Moriba

1–1

60'

⚽

F. Lopez

Assist · W. Swedberg · 1–2

U. Sadiq ↓ · H. Duro ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

T. Rendall ↓ · A. Almeida ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

63'

F. Ugrinic ↓ · U. Nunez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

63'

L. Beltran ↓ · J. Guerra ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

63'

71'

▮

Hugo Sotelo

Yellow Card

71'

⇄

B. Iglesias ↓ · F. Jutgla ↑

Substitution 4

A. Danjuma ↓ · J. Gaya ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

78'

81'

⚽

W. Swedberg

Assist · I. Moriba · 1–3

Guido Rodríguez

Yellow Card

▮

84'

88'

⇄

Y. Lago ↓ · O. Mingueza ↑

Substitution 5

G. Rodriguez

Assist · U. Sadiq · 2–3

⚽

90'

Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Celta Vigo won 3–2 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.04 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Rodriguez (12'), I. Moriba (56'), F. Lopez (60'), W. Swedberg (81'), G. Rodriguez (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.90 units (Brier 0.232).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.63	—	67%	Cashed	+0.63	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.25	—	45%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.75	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	50%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.28	—	39%	Cashed	+1.28	Cashed
Home Win	2.44	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.73	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.26	—	39%	Cashed	+2.26	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.20	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.39	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	—	24%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	91%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.39	—	71%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.28	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.34	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.90u	+5% ROI