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Home › Spain › La Liga › Valencia — Celta Vigo

Valencia vs Celta Vigo 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Valencia
Valencia
Home · last 5 L W D W W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Apr · 14:15
2:3
Full-time
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
W W L D W Away · last 5
Estadio de Mestalla · Valdivia Referee Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 67% · book 1.63 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 45% · book 2.25 ✓
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 1.95 ✗
Total goals
5
2 · 3
xG (open play)
0.81 – 1.04
Δ −0.23
Possession
42% – 58%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.63 — +8.9% better than the market.

Valencia hosts Celta Vigo in a clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge, reflected in their stronger overall profile and offensive threat. Valencia’s home edge is moderate, suggesting a balanced contest but with Celta’s sharper attack likely to challenge the Mestalla defense. Recent form favors Valencia slightly, adding home momentum to the mix. Expect a tactical battle with Celta pressing high and Valencia relying on set-pieces and quick transitions.

  • Celta’s offensive edge against Valencia’s defense
  • Valencia’s home form and set-piece threat
  • Moderate pace hinted by odds, favoring a tactical game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.63 ✓ Cashed
AI 67% Implied 61% +0.63u
+63%
ROI on stake

Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · CEL 3-4-3
VAL · 4-4-2 3-4-3 · CEL 1 Dimitrievski 4 Núñez 5 Tárrega 24 Cömert 14 Gayà 11 Rioja 8 Guerra 2 Rodríguez ⚽ 10 Almeida 9 Duro 17 Ramazani 13 Radu 32 Rodríguez 4 Aidoo 20 Alonso 3 Mingueza 22 Sotelo 6 Moriba ⚽ 5 Carreira 9 Jutglà 18 Durán 23 Álvarez
Subs used · VAL
63' Sadiq ↑ · Duro ↓
63' Rendall ↑ · Almeida ↓
63' Ugrinic ↑ · Nunez ↓
63' Beltran ↑ · Guerra ↓
78' Danjuma ↑ · Gaya ↓
Subs used · CEL
46' Swedberg ↑ · Alvarez ↓
46' El Abdellaoui ↑ · Rodriguez ↓
46' Lopez ↑ · Duran ↓
71' Iglesias ↑ · Jutgla ↓
88' Lago ↑ · Mingueza ↓

Statistics

VAL 2 – 3 CEL
42%
Possession (%)
58%
0.81
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.04
13
Total Shots
9
4
Shots on Target
5
7
Shots off Target
3
7
Shots Inside Box
6
6
Corner Kicks
0
0
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
21
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
1
Yellow Cards
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

19 · 2 – 3
G. Rodriguez
1–0
⚽
12'
43'
▮
Javi Rodríguez
Yellow Card
44'
▮
Marcos Alonso
Yellow Card
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
W. Swedberg ↓ · H. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
J. El Abdellaoui ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑
Substitution 2
46'
⇄
F. Lopez ↓ · P. Duran ↑
Substitution 3
56'
⚽
I. Moriba
1–1
60'
⚽
F. Lopez
Assist · W. Swedberg · 1–2
U. Sadiq ↓ · H. Duro ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
T. Rendall ↓ · A. Almeida ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
F. Ugrinic ↓ · U. Nunez ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
63'
L. Beltran ↓ · J. Guerra ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
63'
71'
▮
Hugo Sotelo
Yellow Card
71'
⇄
B. Iglesias ↓ · F. Jutgla ↑
Substitution 4
A. Danjuma ↓ · J. Gaya ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
81'
⚽
W. Swedberg
Assist · I. Moriba · 1–3
Guido Rodríguez
Yellow Card
▮
84'
88'
⇄
Y. Lago ↓ · O. Mingueza ↑
Substitution 5
G. Rodriguez
Assist · U. Sadiq · 2–3
⚽
90'
Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Celta Vigo won 3–2 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 0. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.04 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: G. Rodriguez (12'), I. Moriba (56'), F. Lopez (60'), W. Swedberg (81'), G. Rodriguez (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.90 units (Brier 0.232).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2 1.63 — 67% Cashed +0.63 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.25 — 45% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.75 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.91 — 50% Cashed +0.91 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.28 — 39% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
Home Win 2.44 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.73 — 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.26 — 39% Cashed +2.26 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.20 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.39 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 4.10 — 24% Cashed +3.10 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.08 — 91% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.39 — 71% Cashed +0.39 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.28 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.34 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 10.00 — 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +0.90u +5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
VAL – CEL @ 1.63
+8.9%
Edge
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