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Home › Spain › La Liga › Elche — Celta Vigo

Prediction: Elche vs Celta Vigo, October 11

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Elche
Elche
Home · last 5 L L D L W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 12:00
—:—
Pre-match · scheduled
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo
L D D D W Away · last 5
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Elche

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · ELC
43%
Best 2.93
Draw
27%
Best 3.32
Away Win · CEL
30%
Best 2.68

Model verdict

Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 63% probability.

Also rated highly: both teams not to score 57%.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 43% Elche win
Over/Under 2.5 63% Under 2.5
BTTS 57% No
Double Chance 70% 1X
  • 1X2 Elche win 43%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 63%
  • BTTS No 57%
  • Double Chance 1X 70%
Open betting analysis

Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win
See full odds

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Elche
W/D/L 1-1-3
Goals (for / against) 10 / 11
Avg goals / match 4.2
Scored in 5/5
Clean sheets 0/5
Both teams scored 5/5
Over 2.5 4/5
Home (W-D-L) 0-0-2
Away (W-D-L) 1-1-1
xG (for / against) 1.06 / 1.50
Celta Vigo
W/D/L 1-3-1
Goals (for / against) 7 / 3
Avg goals / match 2.0
Scored in 3/5
Clean sheets 2/5
Both teams scored 2/5
Over 2.5 1/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-0
Away (W-D-L) 0-2-1
xG (for / against) 1.17 / 0.32

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.57
Goals Scored
1.14
2.43
Goals Conceded
0.86
0.46
Expected Goals (xG)
0.19
5
Shots on Target
3.71
4.43
Corners
3.29
49.86
Possession (%)
52.57
101.66
Efficiency index
110.71
95.64
Adjusted index
81.27
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
50
OFF · home
55
5
DEF · home
30
75
OFF · away
10
75
DEF · away
100
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

Scenario insights

①
Elche wins when scoring first
50%
①
Celta Vigo wins when scoring first
40%
⚽
Elche BTTS rate · last 10
80%
⚽
Celta Vigo BTTS rate · last 10
40%
↑
Elche Over 2.5 · last 10
60%
↑
Celta Vigo Over 2.5 · last 10
20%
↩
Elche comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Celta Vigo comeback rate · last 10
0%

Goal timing

Elche · last 10 at home

0–15 0%
16–30 14%
31–45 14%
46–60 0%
61–75 57%
76–90 14%

Celta Vigo · last 10 away

0–15 22%
16–30 0%
31–45 0%
46–60 44%
61–75 22%
76–90 11%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.

Top scorers

Fer Niño
ELC · Attacker
5 G · 0.96 g/90
Marc Aguado
ELC · Midfielder
1 G · 0.45 g/90
Iago Aspas
CEL · Attacker
1 G