Match Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid March 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.85 — +11.4% better than the market.

Real Madrid enters this clash with a clear quality edge, boasting a stronger attack against Celta Vigo's defense. Despite Celta's recent home momentum and a solid defensive setup, Madrid's offensive firepower and slightly better form on the road suggest they can break through. The match hints at a lively pace with over 2.5 goals likely, reflecting both teams' attacking intent.

Celta's home defense is tested by Madrid's high offensive index.
Madrid's recent form shows resilience despite mixed results.
Expect an open game with chances on both ends.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.85 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 54% +0.85u

+85%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CEL 3-4-3 · REA 4-4-2

CEL · 3-4-3 4-4-2 · REA

19 Swedberg

Subs used · CEL

69'

Lopez ↑ ·

Swedberg ↓

70'

El Abdellaoui ↑ ·

Iglesias ↓

70'

Alvarez ↑ ·

Jutgla ↓

83'

Aspas ↑ ·

Mingueza ↓

90+1'

Vecino ↑ ·

Moriba ↓

Subs used · REA

65'

Palacios ↑ ·

Guler ↓

77'

Garcia ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

90'

A. Moran ↑ ·

Pitarch ↓

📊 Statistics

CEL 1 – 2 REA

37%

Possession (%)

63%

1.05

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.87

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

91%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

14 · 1 – 2

11'

⚽

A. Tchouameni

Assist · A. Guler · 0–1

B. Iglesias

Assist · W. Swedberg · 1–1

⚽

25'

Borja Iglesias

Yellow Card

▮

31'

Half-time · 1 – 1

65'

⇄

C. Palacios ↓ · A. Guler ↑

Substitution 1

F. Lopez ↓ · W. Swedberg ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

69'

J. El Abdellaoui ↓ · B. Iglesias ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

70'

H. Alvarez ↓ · F. Jutgla ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

77'

⇄

G. Garcia ↓ · B. Diaz ↑

Substitution 2

I. Aspas ↓ · O. Mingueza ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

86'

▮

Aurélien Tchouaméni

Yellow Card

90'

▮

Raúl Asencio

Yellow Card

90'

⇄

M. A. Moran ↓ · T. Pitarch ↑

Substitution 3

90'

⚽

F. Valverde

1–2

M. Vecino ↓ · I. Moriba ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Real Madrid won 2–1 away at Celta Vigo. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 3 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Tchouameni (11'), B. Iglesias (25'), F. Valverde (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.54 units (Brier 0.110).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.85	—	60%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
Away Win	2.26	—	53%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.65	—	60%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
BTTS No	2.31	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.11	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.74	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.51	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.36	—	78%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.43	—	61%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.58	—	53%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	81%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	95%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.20	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.47	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	13.40	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.54u	−27% ROI