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Home › England › Premier League › Burnley — Arsenal

Burnley vs Arsenal 0:2: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Burnley
Burnley
Home · last 5 L L D L D
Kick-off
Sat 01 Nov · 15:00
0:2
Full-time
Arsenal
Arsenal
W W W W W Away · last 5
Turf Moor · Burnley Referee Chris Kavanagh, England
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.15 ✓
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 42% · book 2.36 ✗
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 58% · book 1.66 ✓
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
0.42 – 2.47
Δ −2.05
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.30 — +11.8% better than the market.

Arsenal arrive at Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and strong winning momentum, boasting a flawless recent run. Their potent attack faces a Burnley defense that has struggled to contain high-caliber offenses, suggesting Arsenal's pressing and creativity could unlock chances. However, Burnley’s home resilience and slightly better recent points per game hint at a competitive clash.

  • Arsenal’s offensive threat vs Burnley’s defense
  • Burnley’s home form and compact block
  • Recent form gap favoring Arsenal’s confidence

Expect a tactical battle where Arsenal’s superior quality and attacking intent meet Burnley’s home grit. The match may lean towards a moderate tempo with chances for both sides, but Arsenal’s class likely shines through.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 4.30 ✗ Lost
AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BUR 5-4-1 · ARS 4-3-3
BUR · 5-4-1 4-3-3 · ARS 1 Dúbravka 2 Walker 29 Laurent 6 Tuanzebe 5 Estève 3 Hartman 8 Ugochukwu 24 Cullen 16 Luís 11 Anthony 19 Flemming 1 Raya 12 Timber 2 Saliba 6 Magalhães 33 Calafiori 10 Eze 36 Zubimendi 41 Rice ⚽ 7 Saka 14 Gyökeres ⚽ 19 Trossard
Subs used · BUR
62' Bruun Larsen ↑ · Ugochukwu ↓
62' Tchaouna ↑ · Anthony ↓
76' Broja ↑ · Flemming ↓
76' Mejbri ↑ · Laurent ↓
82' Edwards ↑ · Cullen ↓
Subs used · ARS
46' Merino ↑ · Gyökeres ↓
72' Hincapie ↑ · Calafiori ↓
72' Nwaneri ↑ · Eze ↓
77' Norgaard ↑ · Zubimendi ↓
90+1' Lewis-Skelly ↑ · Trossard ↓

Statistics

BUR 0 – 2 ARS
46%
Possession (%)
54%
0.42
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.47
3
Total Shots
12
0
Shots on Target
8
3
Shots off Target
3
2
Shots Inside Box
9
1
Corner Kicks
6
0
Offsides
1
10
Fouls
13
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
2
Yellow Cards
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
0

Match events

15 · 0 – 2
14'
⚽
V. Gyokeres
Assist · Gabriel · 0–1
Josh Cullen
Yellow Card
▮
27'
35'
⚽
D. Rice
Assist · L. Trossard · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
46'
⇄
M. Merino ↓ · V. Gyökeres ↑
Substitution 1
Zian Flemming
Yellow Card
▮
55'
J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
62'
L. Tchaouna ↓ · J. Anthony ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
62'
72'
⇄
P. Hincapie ↓ · R. Calafiori ↑
Substitution 2
72'
⇄
E. Nwaneri ↓ · E. Eze ↑
Substitution 3
A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
76'
H. Mejbri ↓ · J. Laurent ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
76'
77'
⇄
C. Norgaard ↓ · M. Zubimendi ↑
Substitution 4
M. Edwards ↓ · J. Cullen ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
82'
90+1'
⇄
M. Lewis-Skelly ↓ · L. Trossard ↑
Substitution 5
90+5'
▮
Gabriel Magalhães
Yellow Card
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Arsenal won 2–0 away at Burnley. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.47 to 0.42. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 3, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Gyokeres (14'), D. Rice (35').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.97 units (Brier 0.078).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.15 — 51% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
BTTS Yes 2.36 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.66 — 58% Cashed +0.66 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.82 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.30 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.26 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 — 72% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Away Win 1.32 — 77% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.07 — 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.10 — 77% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 3.5 3.00 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 14.90 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.05 — 93% Cashed +0.05 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.26 — 74% Cashed +0.26 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 3.92 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 12.50 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 7.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −5.97u −35% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
BUR – ARS @ 4.30
+11.8%
Edge
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