Match Burnley vs Arsenal November 1, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.15 — +9.0% better than the market.

Arsenal arrive at Turf Moor with a clear quality edge and strong winning momentum, boasting a flawless recent run. Their potent attack faces a Burnley defense that has struggled to contain high-caliber offenses, suggesting Arsenal's pressing and creativity could unlock chances. However, Burnley’s home resilience and slightly better recent points per game hint at a competitive clash.

Arsenal’s offensive threat vs Burnley’s defense
Burnley’s home form and compact block
Recent form gap favoring Arsenal’s confidence

Expect a tactical battle where Arsenal’s superior quality and attacking intent meet Burnley’s home grit. The match may lean towards a moderate tempo with chances for both sides, but Arsenal’s class likely shines through.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.15 ✓ Cashed

AI 51% Implied 47% +1.15u

+115%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BUR 5-4-1 · ARS 4-3-3

BUR · 5-4-1 4-3-3 · ARS

19 Flemming

Subs used · BUR

62'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Ugochukwu ↓

62'

Tchaouna ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

76'

Broja ↑ ·

Flemming ↓

76'

Mejbri ↑ ·

Laurent ↓

82'

Edwards ↑ ·

Cullen ↓

Subs used · ARS

46'

Merino ↑ ·

Gyökeres ↓

72'

Hincapie ↑ ·

Calafiori ↓

72'

Nwaneri ↑ ·

Eze ↓

77'

Norgaard ↑ ·

Zubimendi ↓

90+1'

Lewis-Skelly ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

📊 Statistics

BUR 0 – 2 ARS

46%

Possession (%)

54%

0.42

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 0 – 2

14'

⚽

V. Gyokeres

Assist · Gabriel · 0–1

Josh Cullen

Yellow Card

▮

27'

35'

⚽

D. Rice

Assist · L. Trossard · 0–2

Half-time · 0 – 2

46'

⇄

M. Merino ↓ · V. Gyökeres ↑

Substitution 1

Zian Flemming

Yellow Card

▮

55'

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Ugochukwu ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

L. Tchaouna ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

62'

72'

⇄

P. Hincapie ↓ · R. Calafiori ↑

Substitution 2

72'

⇄

E. Nwaneri ↓ · E. Eze ↑

Substitution 3

A. Broja ↓ · Z. Flemming ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

76'

H. Mejbri ↓ · J. Laurent ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

76'

77'

⇄

C. Norgaard ↓ · M. Zubimendi ↑

Substitution 4

M. Edwards ↓ · J. Cullen ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

90+1'

⇄

M. Lewis-Skelly ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 5

90+5'

▮

Gabriel Magalhães

Yellow Card

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Arsenal won 2–0 away at Burnley. At half-time it was 0–2.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.47 to 0.42. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 3, 8 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 1. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Gyokeres (14'), D. Rice (35').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.97 units (Brier 0.078).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.15	—	51%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.36	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.66	—	58%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.82	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.30	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.26	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	72%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Away Win	1.32	—	77%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.07	—	94%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.10	—	77%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.90	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.26	—	74%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	3.92	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	12.50	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	7.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−5.97u	−35% ROI