Match Valencia vs Real Madrid February 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.70 — +9.4% better than the market.

Real Madrid arrives at Mestalla with a clear quality edge and strong away form, suggesting they can control the game despite Valencia's home momentum. Madrid's potent attack faces a Valencia defense that has struggled, hinting at goal-scoring opportunities. Valencia's recent mixed results and defensive vulnerabilities may invite pressure, while Madrid's sharper offensive edge and consistent winning streak could dictate the tempo.

Madrid's superior offensive firepower vs Valencia's leaky defense
Valencia's home support offers some resilience
Likely open game with chances for both sides

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 64% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · REA 4-4-2

VAL · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · REA

9 Duro

Subs used · VAL

72'

Rendall ↑ ·

Nunez ↓

72'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Pepelu ↓

81'

Guerra ↑ ·

Ugrinic ↓

81'

Ramazani ↑ ·

Rioja ↓

82'

Sadiq ↑ ·

Beltran ↓

Subs used · REA

76'

Alexander-Arnold ↑ ·

Jimenez ↓

76'

Diaz ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

82'

Mastantuono ↑ ·

Guler ↓

90+2'

Cestero Sancho ↑ ·

Valverde ↓

📊 Statistics

VAL 0 – 2 REA

40%

Possession (%)

60%

0.44

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.03

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 0 – 2

Half-time · 0 – 0

65'

⚽

A. Carreras

Assist · D. Huijsen · 0–1

69'

▮

Álvaro Carreras

Yellow Card

T. Rendall ↓ · U. Nunez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

72'

G. Rodriguez ↓ · Pepelu ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

76'

⇄

T. Alexander-Arnold ↓ · D. Jimenez ↑

Substitution 1

76'

⇄

B. Diaz ↓ · G. Garcia ↑

Substitution 2

J. Guerra ↓ · F. Ugrinic ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

81'

L. Ramazani ↓ · L. Rioja ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

U. Sadiq ↓ · L. Beltran ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

⇄

F. Mastantuono ↓ · A. Guler ↑

Substitution 3

José Copete

Yellow Card

▮

88'

90'

⚽

K. Mbappe

Assist · B. Diaz · 0–2

90+2'

⇄

J. Cestero Sancho ↓ · F. Valverde ↑

Substitution 4

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Real Madrid won 2–0 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.03 to 0.44. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 6 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 8 to 5. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: A. Carreras (65'), K. Mbappe (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.56 units (Brier 0.143).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.70	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.65	—	65%	Cashed	+0.65	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.65	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.72	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	—	40%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	2.48	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.36	—	36%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.19	—	87%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.53	—	57%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.26	—	65%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.21	—	84%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	95%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.75	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	5.60	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	4.31	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.56u	−27% ROI