Match Mallorca vs Athletic Club January 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 3.70 — +7.1% better than the market.

Mallorca hosts Athletic Club in a tightly matched La Liga clash. The home side shows a slight edge in recent form and home momentum, while Athletic's defensive solidity could stifle Mallorca's attack. Expect a cautious tempo with both teams balancing pressing and compactness.

Mallorca's home defensive resilience vs Athletic's offensive threat
Close quality gap suggests a balanced contest
Recent form favors Mallorca's slight home momentum

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 3.70 ✓ Cashed

AI 29% Implied 27% +2.70u

+270%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAL 4-4-2 · BIL 4-2-3-1

MAL · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · BIL

18 Joseph

Subs used · MAL

73'

Sanchez ↑ ·

Joseph ↓

83'

Torre ↑ ·

Virgili ↓

83'

Mojica ↑ ·

Lato ↓

90+3'

Llabres ↑ ·

Darder ↓

Subs used · BIL

59'

Sancet ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

59'

Williams ↑ ·

Berenguer ↓

72'

Navarro ↑ ·

Williams ↓

76'

Gorosabel ↑ ·

Areso ↓

76'

Izeta ↑ ·

Ruiz de Galarreta ↓

📊 Statistics

MAL 3 – 2 BIL

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.54

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.13

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

78%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

22 · 3 – 2

-5'

▮

Íñigo Lekue

Red Card

V. Muriqi

Assist · S. Darder · 1–0

⚽

U. Gomez

Assist · G. Guruzeta · 1–1

Marash Kumbulla

Yellow Card

▮

18'

40'

▮

Daniel Vivian

Yellow Card

V. Muriqi

2–1

⚽

42'

45'

⚽

N. Williams

Assist · U. Gomez · 2–2

45+5'

▮

Jesús Areso

Yellow Card

45+6'

▮

Gorka Guruzeta

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 2

59'

⇄

O. Sancet ↓ · U. Gomez ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

I. Williams ↓ · A. Berenguer ↑

Substitution 2

V. Muriqi (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

69'

70'

▮

Gorka Guruzeta

Yellow Card

70'

▮

Gorka Guruzeta

Red Card

72'

⇄

R. Navarro ↓ · N. Williams ↑

Substitution 3

73'

▮

Oihan Sancet

Yellow Card

A. Sanchez ↓ · M. Joseph ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

73'

76'

⇄

A. Gorosabel ↓ · J. Areso ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

Izeta ↓ · I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↑

Substitution 5

P. Torre ↓ · J. Virgili ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

83'

J. Mojica ↓ · T. Lato ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

J. Llabres ↓ · S. Darder ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Mallorca beat Athletic Club 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 17, 11 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 8 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Muriqi (5'), U. Gomez (8'), V. Muriqi (42'), N. Williams (45'), V. Muriqi (69'). Íñigo Lekue was sent off in the -5' minute. Gorka Guruzeta was sent off in the 70' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.51 units (Brier 0.304).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.37	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.61	—	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.79	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.79	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.60	—	38%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.67	—	57%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.12	—	44%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
AH Home 0	2.50	—	29%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Home Win	3.70	—	29%	Cashed	+2.70	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.50	—	65%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.33	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.15	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	1.58	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.21	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.12	—	88%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Over 3.5	5.30	—	18%	Cashed	+4.30	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+3.51u	+21% ROI