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Brighton vs Newcastle 2:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 14:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Craig Pawson, England
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 71% · book 1.53 ✓
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 45% · book 2.71 ✓
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 53% · book 2.02 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.03 – 1.38
Δ −0.35
Possession
46% – 54%
AI accuracy
8 / 13
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.29 — +11.5% better than the market.

Preview & Verdict

Brighton hosts Newcastle in a match where both teams will look to assert their strengths. Brighton's home advantage and attacking profile give them a slight edge, with a 45.35% estimated probability for a home win against the posted odds of 2.71. The Double Chance 1X market offers a safer option with a high confidence level, reflecting Brighton's solid form trend. Meanwhile, the Under 2.5 Goals market suggests a cautious game state, with a 53.33% estimated probability and odds of 2.02. Expect a tightly contested match with limited goal-scoring opportunities.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.29 ✗ Lost
AI 49% Implied 44% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BRI 4-2-3-1 · NEW 4-3-3
Subs used · BRI
36' De Cuyper ↑ · Gomez ↓
71' Tzimas ↑ · Rutter ↓
71' Milner ↑ · Baleba ↓
89' Coppola ↑ · Minteh ↓
90' Kostoulas ↑ · Welbeck ↓
Subs used · NEW
46' Miley ↑ · Joelinton ↓
46' Murphy ↑ · Elanga ↓
70' Barnes ↑ · Gordon ↓
70' Ramsey ↑ · Tonali ↓
86' Osula ↑ · Guimaraes ↓

Statistics

BRI 2 – 1 NEW
46%
Possession (%)
54%
1.03
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.38
13
Total Shots
17
5
Shots on Target
3
3
Shots off Target
8
6
Shots Inside Box
11
8
Corner Kicks
4
3
Offsides
1
9
Fouls
9
81%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
0
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

14 · 2 – 1
M. De Cuyper ↓ · D. Gomez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
36'
D. Welbeck
Assist · G. Rutter · 1–0
⚽
41'
Half-time · 1 – 0
46'
⇄
L. Miley ↓ · Joelinton ↑
Substitution 1
46'
⇄
J. Murphy ↓ · A. Elanga ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⇄
H. Barnes ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 3
70'
⇄
J. Ramsey ↓ · S. Tonali ↑
Substitution 4
S. Tzimas ↓ · G. Rutter ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
71'
J. Milner ↓ · C. Baleba ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
71'
76'
⚽
N. Woltemade
Assist · L. Miley · 1–1
D. Welbeck
2–1
⚽
84'
86'
⇄
W. Osula ↓ · Bruno Guimaraes ↑
Substitution 5
D. Coppola ↓ · Y. Minteh ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
89'
C. Kostoulas ↓ · D. Welbeck ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
90+7'
▮
Dan Burn
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Brighton beat Newcastle 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 13, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 4.

On the scoresheet: D. Welbeck (41'), N. Woltemade (76'), D. Welbeck (84').

Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 8 landed and 5 missed, for a net +0.60 units (Brier 0.179).

Bet recap · markets settled

13 · 8 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X 1.53 — 71% Cashed +0.53 Cashed
Home Win 2.71 — 45% Cashed +1.71 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.02 — 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.29 — 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.40 — 74% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.06 — 93% Cashed +0.06 Cashed
Draw 3.64 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.71 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 51% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.29 — 73% Cashed +0.29 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.92 — 47% Cashed +0.92 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.55 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.99 — 45% Cashed +0.99 Cashed
Total · 13 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 5 L +0.60u +5% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
BRI – NEW @ 2.29
+11.5%
Edge
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