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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Aston Villa

Prediction: Newcastle vs Aston Villa, October 17

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 W D L W L
Kick-off
Sat 17 Oct · 16:30
—:—
Pre-match · scheduled
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L D L W D Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · NEW
54%
Best 2.17
Draw
24%
Best 3.92
Away Win · AST
22%
Best 3.34

Model verdict

Model leans toward Newcastle to win — 54% probability.

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

AI preview · 90 sec read

Most likely outcomes

What the model rates as most likely in each market.

Market Prob. % Pred.
1X2 54% Newcastle win
Over/Under 2.5 51% Under 2.5
BTTS 52% Yes
Double Chance 78% 1X
  • 1X2 Newcastle win 54%
  • Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51%
  • BTTS Yes 52%
  • Double Chance 1X 78%
Open betting analysis

Odds movement · 1X2

72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win Draw Away Win
See full odds

Recent form

Last 5 matches · all competitions
Newcastle
W/D/L 2-1-2
Goals (for / against) 8 / 11
Avg goals / match 3.8
Scored in 5/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 4/5
Over 2.5 4/5
Home (W-D-L) 1-1-0
Away (W-D-L) 1-0-2
xG (for / against) 1.31 / 1.26
Aston Villa
W/D/L 2-2-1
Goals (for / against) 9 / 8
Avg goals / match 3.4
Scored in 4/5
Clean sheets 1/5
Both teams scored 4/5
Over 2.5 4/5
Home (W-D-L) 0-1-1
Away (W-D-L) 2-1-0
xG (for / against) 1.84 / 1.31

Head-to-Head Performance

last 10 H2H · per match
1.67
Goals Scored
1
2.17
Goals Conceded
1.83
0.67
Expected Goals (xG)
0.41
4
Shots on Target
3.17
4.67
Corners
2.83
51.67
Possession (%)
46.83
120
Efficiency index
120
113.35
Adjusted index
61.68
Eff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.

Team strength

0–100 rating vs league · season-to-date
60
OFF · home
35
20
DEF · home
45
40
OFF · away
30
15
DEF · away
25
Each axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.

Scenario insights

①
Newcastle wins when scoring first
67%
①
Aston Villa wins when scoring first
100%
⚽
Newcastle BTTS rate · last 10
80%
⚽
Aston Villa BTTS rate · last 10
60%
↑
Newcastle Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
↑
Aston Villa Over 2.5 · last 10
80%
↩
Newcastle comeback rate · last 10
0%
↩
Aston Villa comeback rate · last 10
50%

Goal timing

Newcastle · last 10 at home

0–15 29%
16–30 14%
31–45 19%
46–60 5%
61–75 10%
76–90 24%

Aston Villa · last 10 away

0–15 0%
16–30 11%
31–45 22%
46–60 22%
61–75 33%
76–90 11%
Balanced — goals spread evenly across the match.

Top scorers

J. Willock
NEW · Midfielder
2 G · 0.63 g/90
A. Elanga
NEW · Attacker
2 G · 0.77 g/90