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Home › England › Premier League › Brighton — Newcastle

Predictions by Market: Brighton vs Newcastle

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Brighton
Brighton
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Sat 18 Oct · 14:00
2:1
Full-time
Newcastle
Newcastle
L W D W L Away · last 5
American Express Stadium · Falmer Referee Craig Pawson, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · BRI
45%
Best 2.91
Draw
26%
Best 3.44
Away Win · NEW
29%
Best 2.44
Value pick
BTTS No
@ 2.29
Fair odds
2.05
book 2.29 · +11.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
—
p 49% · EV +11.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — BTTS Yes is more likely (51%), but BTTS No is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 45.4%
Odds 2.71
Show model details
Implied probability 36.9%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.64
Show model details
Implied probability 27.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 29%
Odds 2.71
Show model details
Implied probability 36.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 5 markets
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 53.3%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 92.6%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 1.5
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Over 2.5
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 48.7%
Odds 2.29
Show model details
Implied probability 43.7%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 51.3%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 1 market
✓ AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 45.4%
Odds 1.99
Show model details
Implied probability 50.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 54.7%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · BTTS No
BRI – NEW @ 2.29
+11.5%
Edge
Forecast →