Match Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid May 5, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

Arsenal vs Atletico Madrid looks like a high-level European clash, but the home side carry the clearer overall edge. Arsenal come in with stronger balance, better control at home and a far more reliable defensive platform, which should let them dictate long stretches of the match. Atletico Madrid still have enough quality to stay dangerous on transitions and can absolutely make this uncomfortable if the game gets stretched, but their current attacking rhythm looks less stable. The most likely script is Arsenal creating the better chances and holding the stronger path to victory, while the goal pattern points more toward a controlled two- or three-goal game than a wild shootout.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ARS 4-2-3-1 · ATM 4-4-2

ARS · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · ATM

14 Gyökeres

📊 Statistics

ARS 1 – 0 ATM

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.58

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.53

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

85%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Arsenal beat Atletico Madrid 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.58 to 0.53. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 2 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -4.60 units (Brier 0.169).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.70	—	57%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.90	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5 Goals	1.30	—	82%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5 Goals	1.10	—	95%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Over 3.5 Goals	3.40	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5 Goals	2.00	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.90	—	52%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Under 2.5 Goals	2.00	—	49%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.10	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.30	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.20	—	69%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.20	—	80%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 3.5 Goals	1.30	—	70%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−4.60u	−31% ROI