Match Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen March 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.70 — +10.0% better than the market.

Arsenal vs Bayer Leverkusen looks like a heavyweight European clash, but the home side clearly hold the stronger overall position going in. Arsenal arrive with better balance, a much more reliable defensive base and the kind of attacking control that usually makes them very hard to stop at home. Leverkusen are still dangerous enough to score and stay competitive for parts of the match, especially because they have enough quality in transition, but they do not look as stable over the full ninety minutes. The most likely script is Arsenal dictating the game, creating the clearer chances and finishing with a strong edge, while goals still remain live if the visitors are forced to chase.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.70 ✗ Lost

AI 64% Implied 59% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ARS 4-2-3-1 · BAY 3-4-2-1

ARS · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · BAY

14 Gyökeres

📊 Statistics

ARS 2 – 0 BAY

42%

Possession (%)

58%

1.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.52

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

88%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Arsenal beat Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.75 to 0.52. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 9, 12 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 10 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 7 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.70 units (Brier 0.122).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 7 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.20	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	11.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	7.00	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.70	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.30	—	74%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Draw	6.10	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.70	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.20	—	83%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.50	—	55%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.30	—	36%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
BTTS No	1.80	—	53%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Double Chance X2	4.00	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	—	90%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	84%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.70	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	16.00	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 9 L	−5.70u	−36% ROI