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Home › England › Premier League › Sunderland — Brighton

Sunderland vs Brighton 0:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Sunderland
Sunderland
Home · last 5 L D D W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 15:00
0:1
Full-time
Brighton
Brighton
W L W L L Away · last 5
Stadium of Light · Sunderland Referee Thomas Kirk, England
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 52% · book 2.28 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 52% · book 2.05 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 57% · book 1.83 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
0.97 – 1.57
Δ −0.60
Possession
47% – 53%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.47 — +7.8% better than the market.

Brighton enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a pressing advantage, despite Sunderland's home momentum and slightly better recent points per game. Sunderland's defensive solidity at home faces a stern test against Brighton's sharper attack, suggesting a tactical battle with potential for a tight scoreline.

  • Brighton's superior overall strength and offensive threat
  • Sunderland's home resilience but recent form dips
  • Moderate pace expected, favoring compact defensive setups

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5
Under 1.5 @ 3.47 ✓ Cashed
AI 31% Implied 29% +2.47u
+247%
ROI on stake

Lineups

SUN 4-1-4-1 · BRI 4-2-3-1
SUN · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · BRI 31 Ellborg 6 Geertruida 5 Ballard 15 Alderete 32 Hume 34 Xhaka 11 Rigg 19 Diarra 27 Sadiki 7 Talbi 9 Brobbey 1 Verbruggen 27 Wieffer 6 Hecke 5 Dunk 24 Kadıoğlu 20 Milner 30 Groß 25 Gómez 13 Hinshelwood 11 Minteh ⚽ 18 Welbeck
Subs used · SUN
64' O'Nien ↑ · Ballard ↓
78' Mayenda ↑ · Brobbey ↓
85' Cirkin ↑ · Talbi ↓
Subs used · BRI
76' De Cuyper ↑ · Minteh ↓
88' Ayari ↑ · Hinshelwood ↓
90+4' Veltman ↑ · Gomez ↓
90+5' O'Riley ↑ · Welbeck ↓

Statistics

SUN 0 – 1 BRI
47%
Possession (%)
53%
0.97
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.57
14
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
4
5
Shots off Target
3
8
Shots Inside Box
9
7
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
1
7
Fouls
11
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
79%
1
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

11 · 0 – 1
Half-time · 0 – 0
51'
▮
Diego Gómez
Yellow Card
58'
⚽
Y. Minteh
0–1
L. O'Nien ↓ · D. Ballard ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
74'
▮
Yankuba Minteh
Yellow Card
Granit Xhaka
Yellow Card
▮
75'
76'
⇄
M. De Cuyper ↓ · Y. Minteh ↑
Substitution 1
E. Mayenda ↓ · B. Brobbey ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
78'
D. Cirkin ↓ · C. Talbi ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
85'
88'
⇄
Y. Ayari ↓ · J. Hinshelwood ↑
Substitution 2
90+4'
⇄
J. Veltman ↓ · D. Gomez ↑
Substitution 3
90+5'
⇄
M. O'Riley ↓ · D. Welbeck ↑
Substitution 4
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Brighton won 1–0 away at Sunderland. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.57 to 0.97. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Y. Minteh (58').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.01 units (Brier 0.165).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 2.28 — 52% Cashed +1.28 Cashed
BTTS No 2.05 — 52% Cashed +1.05 Cashed
Under 2.5 1.83 — 57% Cashed +0.83 Cashed
Over 2.5 2.15 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.82 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.60 — 52% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.71 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.47 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.36 — 79% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.47 — 31% Cashed +2.47 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.32 — 77% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.37 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.47 — 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.75 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 3.47 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −2.01u −12% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 1.5
SUN – BRI @ 3.47
+7.8%
Edge
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