Match Toulouse vs Strasbourg December 6, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.96 — +9.2% better than the market.

Strasbourg arrives with a clear quality edge and a stronger attack, while Toulouse shows signs of home resilience despite recent struggles. The home side's defensive solidity faces a potent Strasbourg offense, suggesting tactical battles around midfield control and pressing intensity. Expect a moderately open game with chances on both ends, supported by balanced over/under odds hinting at a lively tempo.

Strasbourg's offensive edge against Toulouse's defense
Toulouse's home momentum despite patchy form
Potential for goals given attacking matchups and pace

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.96 ✗ Lost

AI 56% Implied 51% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TOU 3-4-2-1 · STR 3-4-2-1

TOU · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · STR

20 Emersonn ⚽

Subs used · TOU

46'

Messali ↑ ·

Magri ↓

79'

Hidalgo ↑ ·

Emersonn ↓

Subs used · STR

62'

Amougou ↑ ·

Nanasi ↓

62'

Paez ↑ ·

Omobamidele ↓

75'

Amo-Ameyaw ↑ ·

Doue ↓

87'

Godo ↑ ·

Moreira ↓

📊 Statistics

TOU 1 – 0 STR

28%

Possession (%)

72%

0.45

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.07

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

93%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 1 – 0

Emersonn

1–0

⚽

18'

Cristian Cásseres Jr.

Yellow Card

▮

28'

Frank Magri

Yellow Card

▮

44'

Half-time · 1 – 0

R. Messali ↓ · F. Magri ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

62'

⇄

M. Amougou ↓ · S. Nanasi ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

K. Paez ↓ · A. Omobamidele ↑

Substitution 2

75'

⇄

S. Amo-Ameyaw ↓ · G. Doue ↑

Substitution 3

S. Hidalgo ↓ · Emersonn ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

79'

82'

▮

Diego Moreira

Yellow Card

85'

▮

Samir El Mourabet

Yellow Card

87'

⇄

M. Godo ↓ · D. Moreira ↑

Substitution 4

89'

▮

Ben Chilwell

Yellow Card

Rafik Messali

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Toulouse beat Strasbourg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 72% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 93% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Emersonn (18').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.52 units (Brier 0.285).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.96	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.73	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.17	—	42%	Cashed	+1.17	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.06	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.98	—	44%	Cashed	+0.98	Cashed
Home Win	2.63	—	30%	Cashed	+1.63	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.89	—	30%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.55	—	70%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.88	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.30	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.48	—	57%	Cashed	+0.48	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.31	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	93%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.50	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.36	—	66%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.90	—	22%	Cashed	+2.90	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−0.52u	−3% ROI