Match Lens vs Strasbourg November 22, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.71 — +11.4% better than the market.

Lens shows strong home momentum with a solid recent run and a pressing edge in attack against Strasbourg's defense. Despite Strasbourg's higher overall strength, Lens' home form and sharper offensive-defensive matchup suggest a competitive clash. The pace hints at an open game with a good chance for goals, supported by both sides' attacking capabilities.

Lens' home form is notably better, offering confidence in their attacking rhythm.
Strasbourg's defense may struggle against Lens' offensive pressure.
The expected tempo favors a lively match with scoring opportunities.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5

Over 2.5 @ 1.71 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 58% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LEN 3-4-2-1 · STR 3-4-2-1

LEN · 3-4-2-1 3-4-2-1 · STR

11 Édouard

Subs used · LEN

74'

Sima ↑ ·

Thauvin ↓

74'

Guilavogui ↑ ·

Said ↓

85'

Sotoca ↑ ·

Edouard ↓

Subs used · STR

46'

Omobamidele ↑ ·

Hogsberg ↓

61'

Amougou ↑ ·

El Mourabet ↓

61'

Enciso ↑ ·

Lemarechal ↓

85'

Nzingoula ↑ ·

Moreira ↓

90+1'

Amo-Ameyaw ↑ ·

Doue ↓

📊 Statistics

LEN 1 – 0 STR

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.81

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 0

▮

Samir El Mourabet

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

A. Omobamidele ↓ · L. Hogsberg ↑

Substitution 1

61'

⇄

M. Amougou ↓ · S. El Mourabet ↑

Substitution 2

61'

⇄

J. Enciso ↓ · F. Lemarechal ↑

Substitution 3

68'

▮

Guéla Doué

Yellow Card

I. Ganiou

Assist · M. Udol · 1–0

⚽

69'

A. Sima ↓ · F. Thauvin ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

74'

M. Guilavogui ↓ · W. Said ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

Adrien Thomasson

Yellow Card

▮

77'

▮

Valentín Barco

Red Card

F. Sotoca ↓ · O. Edouard ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

⇄

R. Nzingoula ↓ · D. Moreira ↑

Substitution 4

90+1'

⇄

S. Amo-Ameyaw ↓ · G. Doue ↑

Substitution 5

Morgan Guilavogui

Red Card

▮

90+5'

Florian Sotoca

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

90+7'

▮

Emmanuel Emegha

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Lens beat Strasbourg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.81 to 0.45. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 7, 5 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Ganiou (69'). Valentín Barco was sent off in the 77' minute. Morgan Guilavogui was sent off in the 90+5' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.40 units (Brier 0.299).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	1.71	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.82	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.63	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.65	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.49	—	35%	Cashed	+1.49	Cashed
Home Win	2.12	—	39%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.32	—	35%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
Away Win	3.60	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.35	—	64%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.52	—	56%	Cashed	+0.52	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	—	85%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	—	96%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.56	—	39%	Cashed	+0.56	Cashed
Draw	3.85	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	—	15%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Under 0.5	16.50	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.40u	+2% ROI