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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Ajax — Excelsior

Ajax vs Excelsior 2:2: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 L W W D D
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 18:00
2:2
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
W W D L D Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Jannick van der Laan
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 56% · book 1.74 ✓
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 44% · book 2.20 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 30% · book 2.80 ✗
Total goals
4
2 · 2
Possession
81% – 19%
AI accuracy
6 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 5.50 — +3.7% better than the market.

Ajax hosts Excelsior in a clash where home momentum meets away resilience. Ajax’s recent form shows strong attacking bursts, while Excelsior’s defense has been tested but remains competitive. The match hints at a lively tempo, supported by high over 2.5 goals odds, suggesting open play and goal opportunities.

  • Ajax’s home edge in attack could pressure Excelsior’s backline.
  • Excelsior’s ability to score away adds intrigue.
  • Recent encounters show balanced outcomes, promising an engaging contest.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 5.50 ✓ Cashed
AI 19% Implied 18% +4.50u
+450%
ROI on stake

Statistics

AJA 2 – 2 EXC
81%
Possession (%)
19%
33
Total Shots
4
8
Shots on Target
2
17
Shots off Target
1
24
Shots Inside Box
4
9
Corner Kicks
0
3
Offsides
0
6
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match recap

Ajax and Excelsior drew 2–2. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 81% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 33 shots to 4, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 0. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 6 landed and 5 missed, for a net +3.34 units (Brier 0.197).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 6 W · 5 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 1.74 — 56% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Under 3.5 2.20 — 44% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.80 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 7.50 — 21% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 3.30 — 39% Cashed +2.30 Cashed
Home Win 1.40 — 61% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.44 — 70% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.11 — 79% Cashed +0.11 Cashed
Draw 5.50 — 19% Cashed +4.50 Cashed
Under 2.5 4.00 — 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.25 — 76% Cashed +0.25 Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 5 L +3.34u +30% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
AJA – EXC @ 5.50
+3.7%
Edge
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