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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Ajax — Excelsior

Predictions by Market: Ajax vs Excelsior

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Ajax
Ajax
Home · last 5 L W W D D
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 18:00
2:2
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
W W D L D Away · last 5
Johan Cruijff Arena · Amsterdam Referee Jannick van der Laan

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AJA
61%
Best 1.22
Draw
19%
Best 7.50
Away Win · EXC
21%
Best 11.70
Value pick
Draw
@ 5.50
Fair odds
5.31
book 5.50 · +3.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
—
Pick confidence
Low
p 19% · EV +3.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (61%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Away Win
Probability 20.6%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Home Win Top pick
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 18.9%
Odds 5.50
Show model details
Implied probability 18.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 4 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 55.9%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 3.5
Probability 44.1%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
✓ Under 2.5
Probability 24%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5 Best in group
Probability 76%
Odds 1.25
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No
Probability 30.3%
Odds 2.80
Show model details
Implied probability 35.7%
Bet quality Low
✓ BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 69.7%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 39.5%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 79.4%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
AJA – EXC @ 5.50
+3.7%
Edge
Forecast →