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Home › Netherlands › Eredivisie › Willem II — Excelsior

Willem II vs Excelsior 0:3: Match Review & Stats

Netherlands   /   Eredivisie Value pick inside
Willem II
Willem II
Home · last 5 D L D L L
Kick-off
Sat 05 Sep · 19:00
0:3
Full-time
Excelsior
Excelsior
W W D L D Away · last 5
Koning Willem II Stadion · Tilburg Referee Robin Hensgens
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 48% · book 2.62 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 68% · book 1.69 ✓
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 42% · book 2.36 ✓
Total goals
3
0 · 3
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
5 / 11
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 2.5 at 1.69 — +14.5% better than the market.

Excelsior arrives with clear momentum, boasting a stronger recent form and higher scoring potential than Willem II, who have struggled to find consistency at home. The visitors' attacking edge against a vulnerable defense suggests chances will come, while Willem II's compact block may limit the damage but not prevent goals. Expect a lively tempo given the market's lean towards over 2.5 goals, hinting at open play and pressing from both sides.

  • Excelsior's recent form and scoring threat
  • Willem II's defensive frailties at home
  • Potential for an open, goal-rich game

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 2.5
Over 2.5 @ 1.69 ✓ Cashed
AI 68% Implied 59% +0.69u
+69%
ROI on stake

Statistics

WIL 0 – 3 EXC
59%
Possession (%)
41%
16
Total Shots
13
2
Shots on Target
6
7
Shots off Target
3
11
Shots Inside Box
10
7
Corner Kicks
6
1
Offsides
0
10
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match recap

Excelsior won 3–0 away at Willem II. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -1.72 units (Brier 0.231).

Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.62 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.69 — 68% Cashed +0.69 Cashed
Away Win 2.36 — 42% Cashed +1.36 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.62 — 58% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.35 — 32% Cashed +1.35 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.22 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.57 — 68% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.44 — 68% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Home Win 2.92 — 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.44 — 52% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Draw 3.70 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each — — — 5 W · 6 L −1.72u −16% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 2.5
WIL – EXC @ 1.69
+14.5%
Edge
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