Match Marseille vs Strasbourg August 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 4.27 — +10.1% better than the market.

With limited recent form and strength data, this Ligue 1 opener between Marseille and Strasbourg leans on home advantage and typical tactical traits. Marseille often shows a pressing edge at home, aiming to control tempo early. Strasbourg may adopt a compact block to absorb pressure and seek counter-attacks. The odds suggest a moderately open game with a slight lean towards goals, hinting at a lively pace but balanced defensive efforts.

Marseille's home momentum could unsettle Strasbourg's defense.
Strasbourg's resilience may keep the scoreline tight.
Expect a tactical battle with chances for both sides.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 4.27 ✗ Lost

AI 26% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-3-3 · STR 4-2-3-1

MAR · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · STR

14 Paixão

Subs used · MAR

75'

Aguerd ↑ ·

Egan-Riley ↓

83'

Cornelius ↑ ·

Kondogbia ↓

83'

Nnadi ↑ ·

Abdelli ↓

83'

Abdallah ↑ ·

Harit ↓

90+1'

Maupay ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

Subs used · STR

69'

Reyna ↑ ·

Amo-Ameyaw ↓

69'

Demba ↑ ·

Sousa ↓

69'

Ortega ↑ ·

Mara ↓

79'

Del Blanco ↑ ·

Antwi ↓

79'

Balde ↑ ·

Nanasi ↓

📊 Statistics

MAR 4 – 0 STR

67%

Possession (%)

33%

1.89

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.20

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 4 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

A. Gouiri

Assist · A. Gomes · 1–0

⚽

46'

48'

▮

S. Amo-Ameyaw

Yellow Card

59'

▮

S. El Mourabet

Red Card

61'

▮

S. Mara

Yellow Card

A. Gouiri (P)

Penalty · 2–0

⚽

68'

69'

⇄

G. Reyna ↓ · S. Amo-Ameyaw ↑

Substitution 1

69'

⇄

P. Demba ↓ · D. Sousa ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

J. Ortega ↓ · S. Mara ↑

Substitution 3

N. Aguerd ↓ · C. Egan-Riley ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

79'

⇄

M. Del Blanco ↓ · G. Antwi ↑

Substitution 4

N. Aguerd

Yellow Card

▮

79'

⇄

F. Balde ↓ · S. Nanasi ↑

Substitution 5

D. Cornelius ↓ · G. Kondogbia ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

83'

T. Nnadi ↓ · H. Abdelli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

83'

K. Abdallah ↓ · A. Harit ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

83'

K. Abdallah

3–0

⚽

89'

N. Maupay ↓ · A. Gomes ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+1'

P. Hojbjerg

4–0

⚽

90+6'

Full-time · 4 – 0

Match recap

Marseille beat Strasbourg 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.89 to 0.20. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 5, 8 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.89 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: A. Gouiri (46'), A. Gouiri (68'), K. Abdallah (89'), P. Hojbjerg (90+6'). S. El Mourabet was sent off in the 59' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.29 units (Brier 0.165).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.12	2.05	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.62	1.62	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.39	2.38	40%	Cashed	+1.39	Cashed
BTTS No	2.41	2.43	39%	Cashed	+1.41	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.43	2.45	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.72	1.74	51%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.52	1.52	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.50	1.50	62%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.20	3.23	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.27	4.44	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	17.00	16.95	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.05	4.10	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	1.14	81%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.95	5.00	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.21	1.21	74%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.32	1.32	51%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.29u	−25% ROI