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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Estac Troyes — Marseille

Estac Troyes vs Marseille 0:2: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Estac Troyes
Estac Troyes
Home · last 5 L L L L L
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 18:45
0:2
Full-time
Marseille
Marseille
L L L L W Away · last 5
Stade de l'Aube · Troyes Referee Guillaume Paradis
Hit
Away Win
Away Win
AI 58% · book 1.85 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 50% · book 2.38 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.37 ✓
Total goals
2
0 · 2
xG (open play)
1.14 – 1.36
Δ −0.22
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.54 — +8.7% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.54 ✓ Cashed
AI 71% Implied 65% +0.54u
+54%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TRO 4-2-3-1 · MAR 4-2-3-1
TRO · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · MAR 33 Beach 2 Maronnier 6 Monfray 4 Diaz 5 Gozzi 8 Diop 29 Karim 7 Diawara 17 Mille 11 Gomis 9 Le Douaron 12 de Lange 74 Bezahaf 4 Egan-Riley 21 Aguerd 33 Emerson
42 Kamissoko
8 Abdelli ⚽ 77 Harit ⚽ 7 Gomes 14 Paixão 9 Gouiri
Subs used · TRO
61' Ripart ↑ · Gomis ↓
69' Picard ↑ · Diawara ↓
77' Philiponeau ↑ · Douaron ↓
78' Batola ↑ · Karim ↓
78' Nkada ↑ · Diop ↓
Subs used · MAR
63' Abdallah ↑ · Harit ↓
63' Maupay ↑ · Gouiri ↓
73' Nnadi ↑ · Kamissoko ↓
87' Kondogbia ↑ · Gomes ↓
87' Moumbagna ↑ · Paixão ↓

Statistics

TRO 0 – 2 MAR
37%
Possession (%)
63%
1.14
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.36
15
Total Shots
5
3
Shots on Target
2
8
Shots off Target
0
13
Shots Inside Box
5
6
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
2
14
Fouls
15
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3

Match events

17 · 0 – 2
Lucas Maronnier
Yellow Card
▮
22'
45'
▮
Angel Gomes
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
50'
⚽
Amine Harit
Assist · Emerson Palmieri · 0–1
Dermane Karim
Yellow Card
▮
58'
Renaud Ripart ↓ · Iron Gomis ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
61'
63'
⇄
Keyliane Abdallah ↓ · Amine Harit ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
Neal Maupay ↓ · Amine Gouiri ↑
Substitution 2
Hugo Picard ↓ · Kandet Diawara ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
69'
73'
⇄
Tochukwu Nnadi ↓ · Nouhoum Kamissoko ↑
Substitution 3
Alexandre Philiponeau ↓ · Jérémy Le Douaron ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
77'
Christ Batola ↓ · Dermane Karim ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
78'
Timothee Nkada ↓ · Mouhamed Diop ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
78'
87'
⇄
Geoffrey Kondogbia ↓ · Angel Gomes ↑
Substitution 4
87'
⇄
Faris Moumbagna ↓ · Igor Paixão ↑
Substitution 5
Antoine Mille
Yellow Card
▮
88'
Patrick Beach
Yellow Card
▮
90+6'
90+8'
⚽
Himad Abdelli (P)
Penalty · 0–2
Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Marseille won 2–0 away at Estac Troyes. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 3 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Amine Harit (50'), Himad Abdelli (90+8').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.86 units (Brier 0.123).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Win 1.85 2.00 58% Cashed +0.85 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.38 2.30 50% Cashed +1.38 Cashed
BTTS No 2.37 2.39 50% Cashed +1.37 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.87 1.81 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 2.38 2.50 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 16.50 14.93 12% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.54 1.52 71% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.75 4.55 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 1.54 1.54 56% Cashed +0.54 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.27 1.30 82% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.57 1.62 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.55 1.52 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.02 1.02 88% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Draw 3.83 3.65 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.55 2.55 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.17 1.17 70% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Home Win 3.75 3.60 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.86u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
TRO – MAR @ 1.54
+8.7%
Edge
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