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Home › France › Ligue 1 › Nice — Strasbourg

Nice vs Strasbourg 2:1: Match Review & Stats

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Nice
Nice
Home · last 5 L D L W W
Kick-off
Sun 11 Oct · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Strasbourg
Strasbourg
W W D L L Away · last 5
Allianz Riviera · Nice Referee Jeremie Pignard
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 53% · book 2.20 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 51% · book 2.25 ✗
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 66% · book 1.64 ✗
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
1.34 – 0.56
Δ +0.78
Possession
45% – 55%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.25 — +15.0% better than the market.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 2.25 ✗ Lost
AI 51% Implied 44% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NIC 3-4-2-1 · STR 4-3-3
NIC · 3-4-2-1 4-3-3 · STR 23 Diouf 5 Abdelmonem 55 Ndayishimiye 35 Mandza Tsiendi 92 Clauss ⚽ 39 Coulibaly 28 Witsel 27 Nkounkou 7 Hein 9 Amoura 11 Wahi 1 Jörgensen 16 Antwi 4 Mitchell 31 Coulibaly 36 Oso 23 Sousa 21 Diop 14 Essugo ⚽ 80 Yassine 40 Harder 7 Amo-Ameyaw
Subs used · NIC
37' Boudaoui ↑ · Coulibaly ↓
73' Diop ↑ · Wahi ↓
86' Pereira ↑ · Witsel ↓
86' Jansson ↑ · Hein ↓
Subs used · STR
63' Ortega ↑ · Harder ↓
63' Reyna ↑ · Sousa ↓
73' El-Mourabet ↑ · Essugo ↓
73' Baldé ↑ · Amo-Ameyaw ↓
76' Høgsberg ↑ · Mitchell ↓

Statistics

NIC 2 – 1 STR
45%
Possession (%)
55%
1.34
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.56
11
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
3
5
Shots off Target
5
10
Shots Inside Box
4
2
Corner Kicks
3
5
Offsides
2
3
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

14 · 2 – 1
Hicham Boudaoui ↓ · Djibril Coulibaly ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
37'
41'
⚽
Dario Essugo
Assist · Conrad Harder · 0–1
Pape Demba Diop
Own goal · 1–1
⚽
45+2'
Half-time · 1 – 1
47'
▮
Joaquín Martínez Gauna
Yellow Card
63'
⇄
Jacobo Ortega ↓ · Conrad Harder ↑
Substitution 1
63'
⇄
Giovanni Reyna ↓ · Diogo Sousa ↑
Substitution 2
73'
⇄
Samir El-Mourabet ↓ · Dario Essugo ↑
Substitution 3
73'
⇄
Fábio Baldé ↓ · Samuel Amo-Ameyaw ↑
Substitution 4
Sofiane Diop ↓ · Sepe Elye Wahi ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
73'
Sofiane Diop
Yellow Card
▮
75'
76'
⇄
Lucas Høgsberg ↓ · Jeyland Mitchell ↑
Substitution 5
Jonathan Clauss
Assist · Sofiane Diop · 2–1
⚽
81'
Everton Pereira ↓ · Axel Witsel ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
86'
Isak Jansson ↓ · Gauthier Hein ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
86'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Nice beat Strasbourg 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.34 to 0.56. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

On the scoresheet: Dario Essugo (41'), Pape Demba Diop (45+2'), Jonathan Clauss (81').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -3.75 units (Brier 0.219).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.20 2.45 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.25 2.50 51% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.64 1.58 66% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.19 2.15 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.67 1.62 47% Cashed +0.67 Cashed
Home Win 2.25 2.30 34% Cashed +1.25 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.62 2.45 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.72 1.74 34% Cashed +0.72 Cashed
Away Win 2.90 2.94 41% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.46 1.53 74% Cashed +0.46 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.28 4.61 32% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.38 1.40 59% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.57 1.49 49% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Draw 3.55 3.60 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 1.17 68% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −3.75u −25% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
NIC – STR @ 2.25
+15.0%
Edge
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