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Home › Spain › La Liga › Elche — Real Madrid

Elche vs Real Madrid 2:3: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Elche
Elche
Home · last 5 L L D L W
Kick-off
Tue 15 Sep · 19:30
2:3
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
L W W L W Away · last 5
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero · Elche
Miss
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 60% · book 1.91 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 49% · book 2.01 ✗
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 45% · book 1.73 ✓
Total goals
5
2 · 3
Possession
56% – 44%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.91 — +14.6% better than the market.

Real Madrid arrives with strong momentum, boasting a solid recent run contrasting Elche's struggles. Madrid's pressing edge and clinical finishing could exploit Elche's fragile defense, while the home side's low scoring form suggests a tough night. Expect a controlled pace with Madrid dictating play and capitalizing on set-piece opportunities.

  • Madrid's superior form and away resilience
  • Elche's defensive vulnerabilities under pressure
  • Likely moderate tempo favoring Madrid's tactical discipline

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.91 ✗ Lost
AI 60% Implied 52% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ELC 3-4-3 · REA 4-4-2
ELC · 3-4-3 4-4-2 · REA 1 Dituro 2 Sangaré 5 Redondo 23 Chust 20 Morente 12 Villar 8 Aguado 3 Revivo 16 Neto 24 Osorio ⚽ 11 Valera 1 Courtois 12 Alexander-Arnold 16 Konaté 4 Huijsen 17 Cucurella 25 Diomande 8 Valverde 14 Tchouaméni 15 Güler 10 Mbappé ⚽ 7 Júnior
Subs used · ELC
58' Cepeda ↑ · Aguado ↓
58' Lemar ↑ · Valera ↓
68' Saez ↑ · Sangaré ↓
68' Rodríguez ↑ · Neto ↓
80' Pomares ↑ · Morente ↓
Subs used · REA
68' Díaz ↑ · Vinícius ↓
68' Bellingham ↑ · Güler ↓
86' Sousa ↑ · Tchouameni ↓
87' Espí ↑ · Alexander-Arnold ↓
90+2' Dumfries ↑ · Diomande ↓

Statistics

ELC 2 – 3 REA
56%
Possession (%)
44%
11
Total Shots
20
3
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
11
7
Shots Inside Box
15
2
Corner Kicks
5
1
Offsides
5
21
Fouls
8
4
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

21 · 2 – 3
4'
▮
Yan Diomande
Yellow Card
25'
⚽
Matías Dituro
Own goal · 0–1
Marc Aguado
Yellow Card
▮
31'
33'
⚽
Kylian Mbappé
Assist · Yan Diomande · 0–2
Half-time · 0 – 2
Lucas Cepeda ↓ · Marc Aguado ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
58'
Thomas Lemar ↓ · Germán Valera ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
58'
68'
⇄
Brahim Díaz ↓ · Vinícius ↑
Substitution 1
68'
⇄
Jude Bellingham ↓ · Arda Güler ↑
Substitution 2
Ruben Sanchez Saez ↓ · Buba Sangaré ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
68'
Fernando Niño Rodríguez ↓ · Martim Neto ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
68'
Abiel Alessio Osorio
Assist · Lucas Cepeda · 1–2
⚽
71'
73'
▮
Ibrahima Konaté
Yellow Card
Lucas Cepeda
Yellow Card
▮
78'
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares ↓ · Tete Morente ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
80'
Fernando Niño Rodríguez
Assist · José Antonio Ferrández Pomares · 2–2
⚽
83'
86'
⇄
Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa ↓ · Aurelien Tchouameni ↑
Substitution 3
87'
⇄
Carlos Espí ↓ · Trent Alexander-Arnold ↑
Substitution 4
90+1'
⚽
Carlos Espí
Assist · Kylian Mbappé · 2–3
90+2'
⇄
Denzel Dumfries ↓ · Yan Diomande ↑
Substitution 5
José Antonio Ferrández Pomares
Yellow Card
▮
90+3'
Gonzalo Villar
Yellow Card
▮
90+4'
Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Real Madrid won 3–2 away at Elche. At half-time it was 0–2.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 11, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Matías Dituro (25'), Kylian Mbappé (33'), Abiel Alessio Osorio (71'), Fernando Niño Rodríguez (83'), Carlos Espí (90+1').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.67 units (Brier 0.137).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 1.91 2.08 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.01 2.07 49% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 1.73 1.73 45% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Under 2.5 3.10 3.60 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 8.55 11.49 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 6.50 8.00 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 4.14 4.44 31% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 6.18 7.94 18% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.08 1.04 82% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.74 1.69 51% Cashed +0.74 Cashed
Away Win 1.22 1.21 69% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.10 1.07 62% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 7.50 6.99 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.10 1.05 76% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.36 1.28 60% Cashed +0.36 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −5.67u −38% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
ELC – REA @ 1.91
+14.6%
Edge
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