Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.68 — +7.8% better than the market.

Real Madrid enters this La Liga clash with a clear home advantage, expected to press high and control possession. Despite limited recent form data, the odds suggest a lively game with over 2.5 goals likely, hinting at open play and attacking intent from both sides. Real Sociedad may look to exploit counterattacks, but Madrid's home momentum and tactical discipline should keep them dominant.

Home edge in pressing and control
Potential for open, attacking football
Real Sociedad's counter threat to watch

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 6.68 ✗ Lost

AI 16% Implied 15% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-2-3-1 · RSO 4-2-3-1

REA · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · RSO

10 Mbappé ⚽

Subs used · REA

46'

Cucurella ↑ ·

Carreras ↓

78'

Camavinga ↑ ·

Bellingham ↓

78'

Diaz ↑ ·

Guler ↓

84'

Diomande ↑ ·

Junior ↓

86'

Espi ↑ ·

Silva ↓

Subs used · RSO

57'

Oskarsson ↑ ·

Oyarzabal ↓

57'

Zubeldia ↑ ·

Aramburu ↓

66'

Barrenetxea ↑ ·

Ochieng ↓

66'

Soler ↑ ·

Herrera ↓

74'

Guedes ↑ ·

Kubo ↓

Statistics

REA 4 – 1 RSO

51%

Possession (%)

49%

3.14

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.57

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

21 · 4 – 1

A. Carreras

Yellow Card

▮

10'

31'

▮

Y. Herrera

Yellow Card

K. Mbappe

Assist · F. Valverde · 1–0

⚽

40'

44'

⚽

L. Sucic

1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

M. Cucurella ↓ · A. Carreras ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

45+2'

▮

J. Aramburu

Yellow Card

57'

⇄

O. Oskarsson ↓ · M. Oyarzabal ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

I. Zubeldia ↓ · J. Aramburu ↑

Substitution 2

K. Mbappe

Assist · J. Bellingham · 2–1

⚽

60'

66'

⇄

A. Barrenetxea ↓ · J. Ochieng ↑

Substitution 3

66'

⇄

C. Soler ↓ · Y. Herrera ↑

Substitution 4

Vinicius Junior

Assist · J. Bellingham · 3–1

⚽

68'

71'

▮

L. Beitia

Yellow Card

I. Konate

Yellow Card

▮

73'

74'

⇄

G. Guedes ↓ · T. Kubo ↑

Substitution 5

E. Camavinga ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

78'

B. Diaz ↓ · A. Guler ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

K. Mbappe

Assist · Vinicius Junior · 4–1

⚽

80'

Y. Diomande ↓ · Vinicius Junior ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

C. Espi ↓ · B. Silva ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

E. Camavinga

Yellow Card

▮

90+4'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Real Sociedad 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.14 to 0.57. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 10, 11 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: K. Mbappe (40'), L. Sucic (44'), K. Mbappe (60'), Vinicius Junior (68'), K. Mbappe (80').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.26 units (Brier 0.125).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.87	1.91	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.00	1.91	38%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.00	3.19	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.72	1.80	54%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
BTTS No	2.02	1.95	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.80	4.10	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	12.05	12.05	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.36	1.33	59%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
AH Away 0	5.35	7.04	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.68	6.67	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	1.01	95%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.00	23.26	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.11	1.07	82%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 1.5	7.00	6.99	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.10	1.05	81%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Home Win	1.30	1.21	64%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.13	1.08	61%	Cashed	+0.13	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.26u	−37% ROI

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled