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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Real Sociedad

Predictions Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad August 26, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Wed 26 Aug · 19:00
4:1
Full-time
Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad
L L Away · last 5
Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain
Home Win · REA
64%
Best 1.27
Draw
16%
Best 7.00
Away Win · RSO
16%
Best 13.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 6.68
Fair odds
6.19
book 6.68 · +7.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 16% · EV +7.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (64%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 15.5%
Odds 12.05
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 16.2%
Odds 6.68
Show model details
Implied probability 15%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 63.8%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5 Value pick
Probability 61.7%
Odds 1.87
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 3.5
Probability 38.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 41.1%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5
Probability 58.9%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.9%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.1%
Odds 19.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.8%
Odds 1.11
Show model details
Implied probability 90.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54%
Odds 1.72
Show model details
Implied probability 58.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 46%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 19.3%
Odds 5.35
Show model details
Implied probability 18.7%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 60.7%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 33.7%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 80.8%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 90.9%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – RSO @ 6.68
+7.8%
Edge
Forecast →