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Home › England › Premier League › Arsenal — Leeds

Arsenal vs Leeds 2:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Arsenal
Arsenal
Home · last 5 W W W L W
Kick-off
Sat 10 Oct · 11:30
2:1
Full-time
Leeds
Leeds
D D W D L Away · last 5
Emirates Stadium · London Referee Paul Tierney
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.10 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 60% · book 1.67 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 40% · book 2.10 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.14 – 0.74
Δ +1.40
Possession
59% – 41%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.42 — +7.4% better than the market.

Arsenal arrive with strong home momentum, boasting a solid attacking edge against Leeds' defense. Their recent form shows resilience with four wins in five, contrasting Leeds' more cautious streak. Arsenal's compact block and pressing intensity at Emirates could stifle Leeds' offense, while the visitors' defensive solidity may limit goal-scoring chances, hinting at a moderately paced game.

  • Home attacking pressure vs away defensive discipline
  • Recent form favors Arsenal's confidence
  • Likely controlled tempo with few high-risk moments

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.42 ✓ Cashed
AI 76% Implied 71% +0.42u
+42%
ROI on stake

Lineups

ARS 4-2-3-1 · LEE 3-4-2-1
ARS · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · LEE 1 Raya 4 White 15 Konsa 6 Magalhães 33 Calafiori ⚽ 41 Rice 49 Lewis-Skelly 7 Saka 8 Ødegaard 20 Madueke 29 Havertz 1 Trafford 24 Justin ⚽ 30 Elvedi 5 Muharemović 2 Bogle 4 Ampadu 22 Tanaka 3 Gudmundsson 18 Stach 19 Okafor 9 Calvert-Lewin
Subs used · ARS
63' Timber ↑ · White ↓
63' Gyökeres ↑ · Havertz ↓
63' Guimarães ↑ · Lewis-Skelly ↓
82' Hincapié ↑ · Calafiori ↓
90' Merino ↑ · Odegaard ↓
Subs used · LEE
71' Wilson ↑ · Tanaka ↓
71' Aaronson ↑ · Okafor ↓
79' Nmecha ↑ · Justin ↓
86' Bahoya ↑ · Bogle ↓
86' Bijol ↑ · Elvedi ↓

Statistics

ARS 2 – 1 LEE
59%
Possession (%)
41%
2.14
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.74
12
Total Shots
11
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
3
8
Shots Inside Box
7
2
Corner Kicks
4
7
Offsides
4
12
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2

Match events

19 · 2 – 1
36'
▮
Ao Tanaka
Yellow Card
38'
▮
Ethan Ampadu
Yellow Card
39'
▮
Daniel Farke
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
55'
⚽
James Justin
Assist · Gabriel Gudmundsson · 0–1
59'
▮
Tarik Muharemovic
Yellow Card
Riccardo Calafiori
Assist · Ben White · 1–1
⚽
62'
Jurriën Timber ↓ · Ben White ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
63'
Viktor Gyökeres ↓ · Kai Havertz ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
63'
Bruno Guimarães ↓ · Myles Lewis-Skelly ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
63'
Bruno Guimarães
Assist · Declan Rice · 2–1
⚽
70'
71'
⇄
Harry Wilson ↓ · Ao Tanaka ↑
Substitution 1
71'
⇄
Brenden Aaronson ↓ · Noah Okafor ↑
Substitution 2
78'
▮
James Justin
Yellow Card
79'
⇄
Lukas Nmecha ↓ · James Justin ↑
Substitution 3
Piero Hincapié ↓ · Riccardo Calafiori ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
82'
Martin Odegaard
Yellow Card
▮
84'
86'
⇄
Jean Matteo Bahoya ↓ · Jayden Bogle ↑
Substitution 4
86'
⇄
Jaka Bijol ↓ · Nico Elvedi ↑
Substitution 5
Mikel Merino ↓ · Martin Odegaard ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.14 to 0.74. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: James Justin (55'), Riccardo Calafiori (62'), Bruno Guimarães (70').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.07 units (Brier 0.130).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.10 2.00 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 1.67 1.75 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 2.10 2.00 40% Cashed +1.10 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.73 1.83 45% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.74 3.00 24% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.42 1.40 76% Cashed +0.42 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.05 4.00 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.07 1.09 93% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Home Win 1.32 1.40 74% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.09 1.12 74% Cashed +0.09 Cashed
Draw 5.00 4.74 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.88 2.88 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 1.25 67% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Away Win 9.50 8.00 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.70 5.59 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L −5.07u −34% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
ARS – LEE @ 1.42
+7.4%
Edge
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