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Home › England › Premier League › Tottenham — Aston Villa

Tottenham vs Aston Villa 2:3: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Tottenham
Tottenham
Home · last 5 L D D L D
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sep · 11:30
2:3
Full-time
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
L D L W D Away · last 5
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium · London Referee Samuel Barrott
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 55% · book 2.10 ✗
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 53% · book 2.18 ✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 55% · book 1.78 ✓
Total goals
5
2 · 3
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.41 — +7.4% better than the market.

Tottenham face a tough challenge at home against Aston Villa, who show slightly better recent form and a modest scoring edge. Tottenham’s home momentum is limited by their recent draws and losses, while Villa’s defensive resilience could keep this tight. Expect a cautious tempo with both sides prioritizing solidity over risk.

  • Villa’s defensive discipline may frustrate Tottenham’s attack.
  • Home side’s lack of recent wins suggests pressure to break deadlock.
  • Modest goal expectation hints at a low-scoring encounter.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.41 ✗ Lost
AI 76% Implied 71% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

TOT 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1
TOT · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST 31 Kinský 23 Porro 6 van Hecke ⚽ 37 van de Ven 3 Robertson 30 Bentancur 16 Tonali 17 Sávio 18 Fernandes 22 Marmoush 19 Solanke 1 Suzuki 29 Wan-Bissaka 3 Lindelöf 5 Mings 13 Ruggeri 8 Kamara 35 Gomes 7 McGinn 10 Buendía ⚽ 44 Manzambi ⚽ 11 Jackson ⚽
Subs used · TOT
19' Gray ↑ · Porro ↓
45' Kudus ↑ · Fernandes ↓
66' Maddison ↑ · Solanke ↓
84' Bergvall ↑ · Bentancur ↓
84' Gallagher ↑ · Tonali ↓
Subs used · AST
45' Cash ↑ · Wan-Bissaka ↓
72' Hemmings ↑ · Manzambi ↓
84' Barkley ↑ · McGinn ↓
84' Mbaye ↑ · Kamara ↓
88' Abraham ↑ · Jackson ↓

Statistics

TOT 2 – 3 AST
64%
Possession (%)
36%
20
Total Shots
15
7
Shots on Target
6
9
Shots off Target
6
12
Shots Inside Box
9
11
Corner Kicks
1
5
Offsides
2
9
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
2
3
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

19 · 2 – 3
Archie Gray ↓ · Pedro Porro ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
19'
45'
⇄
Matty Cash ↓ · Aaron Wan-Bissaka ↑
Substitution 1
Mohammed Kudus ↓ · Mateus Fernandes ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
45'
Half-time · 0 – 0
46'
▮
Nicolas Jackson
Yellow Card
45+4'
⚽
Johan Manzambi
Assist · Boubacar Kamara · 0–1
Jan Paul van Hecke
Yellow Card
▮
45+7'
James Maddison ↓ · Dominic Solanke ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
66'
67'
⚽
Nicolas Jackson
Assist · Johan Manzambi · 0–2
72'
⇄
George Hemmings ↓ · Johan Manzambi ↑
Substitution 2
79'
⚽
Emiliano Buendía
Assist · John McGinn · 0–3
84'
⇄
Ross Barkley ↓ · John McGinn ↑
Substitution 3
84'
⇄
Ibrahim Mbaye ↓ · Boubacar Kamara ↑
Substitution 4
Lucas Bergvall ↓ · Rodrigo Bentancur ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
84'
Conor Gallagher ↓ · Sandro Tonali ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
Conor Gallagher
Assist · Mohammed Kudus · 1–3
⚽
86'
88'
⇄
Tammy Abraham ↓ · Nicolas Jackson ↑
Substitution 5
90+2'
▮
Matty Cash
Yellow Card
90+2'
▮
Unai Emery Etxegoien
Yellow Card
Jan Paul van Hecke
Assist · Andrew Robertson · 2–3
⚽
90+8'
Full-time · 2 – 3

Match recap

Aston Villa won 3–2 away at Tottenham. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 15, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 11 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Johan Manzambi (45+4'), Nicolas Jackson (67'), Emiliano Buendía (79'), Conor Gallagher (86'), Jan Paul van Hecke (90+8').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +0.46 units (Brier 0.316).

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 2.5 2.10 2.10 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.18 2.20 53% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 1.78 1.84 55% Cashed +0.78 Cashed
Home Win 1.98 1.95 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 2.72 2.85 29% Cashed +1.72 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.73 1.73 45% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.65 1.62 47% Cashed +0.65 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.76 2.75 24% Cashed +1.76 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.41 1.41 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 4.04 4.20 33% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.60 3.85 29% Cashed +2.60 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.29 1.25 71% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.50 1.46 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.55 3.60 26% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.22 1.21 67% Cashed +0.22 Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +0.46u +3% ROI
Value pick of the night · Under 3.5
TOT – AST @ 1.41
+7.4%
Edge
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