Arsenal vs Tottenham 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS Yes at 2.10 — +7.0% better than the market.

Arsenal carry strong home momentum into this North London derby, boasting a flawless recent run and a significant quality edge over Tottenham. Their potent attack faces a defense that has struggled to contain high-pressure teams, suggesting Arsenal's pressing edge could unlock chances early. Meanwhile, Tottenham's inconsistent form and defensive vulnerabilities may be exposed at Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal's compact block and set-piece threat stand out.
Tottenham's attack may struggle against Arsenal's disciplined defense.
Moderate pace expected, favoring a controlled Arsenal tempo.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS Yes

BTTS Yes @ 2.10 ✓ Cashed

AI 51% Implied 48% +1.10u

+110%

ROI on stake

Lineups

ARS 4-2-3-1 · TOT 3-4-2-1

ARS · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · TOT

23 Merino

Subs used · ARS

78'

Madueke ↑ ·

Trossard ↓

88'

Mosquera ↑ ·

Hincapie ↓

88'

Nwaneri ↑ ·

Merino ↓

90+2'

Lewis-Skelly ↑ ·

Calafiori ↓

Subs used · TOT

46'

Simons ↑ ·

Danso ↓

66'

M. Sarr ↑ ·

Odobert ↓

66'

Kolo Muani ↑ ·

Bentancur ↓

78'

Johnson ↑ ·

Kudus ↓

78'

Porro ↑ ·

Spence ↓

Statistics

ARS 4 – 1 TOT

57%

Possession (%)

43%

1.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.07

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 4 – 1

32'

▮

Rodrigo Bentancur

Yellow Card

L. Trossard

Assist · M. Merino · 1–0

⚽

36'

E. Eze

Assist · D. Rice · 2–0

⚽

41'

Half-time · 2 – 0

46'

⇄

X. Simons ↓ · K. Danso ↑

Substitution 1

E. Eze

Assist · J. Timber · 3–0

⚽

46'

55'

⚽

Richarlison

Assist · J. Palhinha · 3–1

66'

⇄

P. M. Sarr ↓ · W. Odobert ↑

Substitution 2

66'

⇄

R. Kolo Muani ↓ · R. Bentancur ↑

Substitution 3

70'

▮

Cristian Romero

Yellow Card

E. Eze

Assist · L. Trossard · 4–1

⚽

76'

N. Madueke ↓ · L. Trossard ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

78'

⇄

B. Johnson ↓ · M. Kudus ↑

Substitution 4

78'

⇄

P. Porro ↓ · D. Spence ↑

Substitution 5

Declan Rice

Yellow Card

▮

87'

▮

Pedro Porro

Yellow Card

C. Mosquera ↓ · P. Hincapie ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

88'

E. Nwaneri ↓ · M. Merino ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

88'

M. Lewis-Skelly ↓ · R. Calafiori ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+2'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Arsenal beat Tottenham 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.88 to 0.07. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 3, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.88 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Trossard (36'), E. Eze (41'), E. Eze (46'), Richarlison (55'), E. Eze (76').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.92 units (Brier 0.127).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	2.10	—	51%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.87	—	56%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.08	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.80	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.10	—	34%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Home Win	1.44	—	71%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.11	—	92%	Cashed	+0.11	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	66%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.06	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.14	—	71%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.27	—	78%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	94%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	4.85	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.10	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	14.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	8.60	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	5.75	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.92u	−23% ROI

Arsenal vs Tottenham 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled