Match Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest May 7, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest looks like a competitive match rather than a one-sided home favorite spot. Aston Villa have the stronger home setting and slightly better overall balance, which gives them the edge, but Nottingham Forest arrive in much better recent form and look capable of making this very uncomfortable for long stretches. The most likely script is a tight contest with both teams having moments, while the overall goal profile points a little more toward a controlled game than a wide-open shootout. Villa remain the likelier winner, but the visitors are live enough to keep the result in doubt well into the match.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · NOT 4-4-1-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 4-4-1-1 · NOT

11 Watkins

📊 Statistics

AST 4 – 0 NOT

51%

Possession (%)

49%

2.58

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.79

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Aston Villa beat Nottingham Forest 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.58 to 0.79. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 7, 10 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 8 landed and 7 missed, for a net -1.30 units (Brier 0.202).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 8 W · 7 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.90	—	49%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.60	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5 Goals	1.30	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5 Goals	1.30	—	76%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5 Goals	1.10	—	94%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Draw	3.80	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.50	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	75%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.00	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.40	—	71%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 2.5 Goals	2.10	—	47%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Under 2.5 Goals	1.90	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	—	51%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.90	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -1	2.60	—	27%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 7 L	−1.30u	−9% ROI

Match Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest May 7, 2026 — Result and Stats

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled