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Home › World › UEFA Europa League › Aston Villa — Nottingham Forest

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Europe   /   UEFA Europa League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 W W L W W
Kick-off
Thu 07 May · 19:00
4:0
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
W D W W L Away · last 5
Referee G. Nyberg

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
49%
Best 1.88
Draw
26%
Best 3.84
Away Win · NOT
25%
Best 4.50
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.50
Fair odds
4.00
book 4.50 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 25% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (49%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 49%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Draw
Probability 26%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Away Win
Probability 25%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 5 markets
✓ Under 3.5 Goals
Probability 72%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 1.5 Goals
Probability 76%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 0.5 Goals Top pick
Probability 94%
Odds 1.10
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality High
✓ Over 2.5 Goals
Probability 47%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 48.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ Under 2.5 Goals
Probability 53%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS 2 markets
✓ BTTS No Top pick
Probability 51%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Medium
✓ BTTS Yes
Probability 49%
Odds 1.90
Show model details
Implied probability 53.5%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 3 markets
✓ AH Away 0
Probability 29%
Odds 3.60
Show model details
Implied probability 27.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 74.1%
Bet quality High
✓ AH Home -1
Probability 27%
Odds 2.60
Show model details
Implied probability 38.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
✓ Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 75%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 80%
Bet quality High
✓ Double Chance X2
Probability 51%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 49.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
AST – NOT @ 4.50
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →