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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Girona

Real Madrid vs Girona 1:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Fri 10 Apr · 19:00
1:1
Full-time
Girona
Girona
L D D L D Away · last 5
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Madrid Referee Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 57% · book 1.75 ✓
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 48% · book 2.07 ✗
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 52% · book 1.90 ✓
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
2.22 – 0.52
Δ +1.70
Possession
61% – 39%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.57 — +5.9% better than the market.

Real Madrid Looks to Dominate at Bernabéu

Real Madrid holds a clear quality edge and a solid home momentum after recent wins, while Girona struggles to keep pace. The home side's potent attack faces a less resilient Girona defense, suggesting Real Madrid can control the game tempo. Girona's compact block may limit goals, but Madrid's pressing edge and set-piece threat could unlock chances.

  • Strong home form and offensive firepower favor Madrid
  • Girona's defense tested by Madrid's high efficiency
  • Moderate pace expected with goal opportunities for hosts

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 6.57 ✓ Cashed
AI 16% Implied 15% +5.57u
+557%
ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-4-2 · GIR 4-2-3-1
REA · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · GIR 13 Lunin 2 Carvajal 3 Militão 17 Asencio 20 García 8 Valverde ⚽ 5 Bellingham 6 Camavinga 21 Díaz 10 Mbappé 7 Júnior 13 Gazzaniga 4 Martínez 16 Francés 12 Reis 24 Moreno 23 Martín 20 Witsel 15 Tsygankov 11 Lemar ⚽ 18 Ounahi 14 Echeverri
Subs used · REA
64' Huijsen ↑ · Militao ↓
64' Guler ↑ · Bellingham ↓
79' Tchouameni ↑ · Camavinga ↓
79' Mendy ↑ · Garcia ↓
84' Garcia ↑ · Diaz ↓
Subs used · GIR
64' Ruiz ↑ · Echeverri ↓
70' Gil ↑ · Ounahi ↓
70' Rincon ↑ · Lemar ↓
84' Beltran ↑ · Martin ↓
85' Stuani ↑

Statistics

REA 1 – 1 GIR
61%
Possession (%)
39%
2.22
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.52
22
Total Shots
10
9
Shots on Target
2
7
Shots off Target
5
18
Shots Inside Box
4
10
Corner Kicks
1
3
Offsides
0
9
Fouls
13
92%
Pass Accuracy (%)
87%
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
Kylian Mbappé
Yellow Card
▮
35'
Half-time · 0 – 0
F. Valverde
Assist · B. Diaz · 1–0
⚽
51'
62'
⚽
T. Lemar
Assist · A. Martinez · 1–1
D. Huijsen ↓ · Eder Militao ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
64'
A. Guler ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
64'
64'
⇄
A. Ruiz ↓ · C. Echeverri ↑
Substitution 1
70'
⇄
B. Gil ↓ · A. Ounahi ↑
Substitution 2
70'
⇄
H. Rincon ↓ · T. Lemar ↑
Substitution 3
Federico Valverde
Yellow Card
▮
76'
A. Tchouameni ↓ · E. Camavinga ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
79'
F. Mendy ↓ · F. Garcia ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
79'
G. Garcia ↓ · B. Diaz ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
84'
84'
⇄
F. Beltran ↓ · I. Martin ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
C. Stuani ↓ ·
Substitution 5
88'
▮
Hugo Rincón
Yellow Card
Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Real Madrid and Girona drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.22 to 0.52. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 10, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Valverde (51'), T. Lemar (62').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.62 units (Brier 0.254).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.75 — 57% Cashed +0.75 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.07 — 48% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.90 — 52% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
BTTS No 2.20 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.57 — 16% Cashed +5.57 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.08 — 93% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Home Win 1.30 — 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.42 — 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.06 — 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.25 — 30% Cashed +2.25 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.02 — 96% Cashed +0.02 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.13 — 87% Cashed +0.13 Cashed
Under 1.5 7.50 — 13% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 3.92 — 23% Cashed +2.92 Cashed
Under 0.5 24.00 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 10.60 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.10 — 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L +3.62u +21% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – GIR @ 6.57
+5.9%
Edge
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