Match Liverpool vs Aston Villa November 1, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.67 — +11.8% better than the market.

Liverpool hosts Aston Villa at Anfield, holding a clear quality edge and home momentum despite recent struggles. Liverpool's attacking threat faces a resilient Villa defense, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by Villa's pressing edge. Villa's recent form shows signs of revival, yet Liverpool's home advantage and sharper offensive play suggest a controlled match with moderate goal potential.

Liverpool's home edge and offensive firepower
Villa's defensive solidity but limited attack
Moderate pace expected, favoring a tactical battle

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.67 ✓ Cashed

AI 67% Implied 60% +0.67u

+67%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIV 4-2-3-1 · AST 4-2-3-1

LIV · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · AST

22 Ekitiké

Subs used · LIV

77'

Wirtz ↑ ·

Ekitike ↓

Subs used · AST

59'

Barkley ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

59'

Malen ↑ ·

Guessand ↓

74'

Mings ↑ ·

Torres ↓

74'

Sancho ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

75'

Maatsen ↑ ·

Digne ↓

📊 Statistics

LIV 2 – 0 AST

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.31

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 2 – 0

M. Salah

1–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Virgil van Dijk

Yellow Card

▮

54'

57'

▮

Matty Cash

Yellow Card

R. Gravenberch

Assist · A. Mac Allister · 2–0

⚽

58'

59'

⇄

R. Barkley ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

D. Malen ↓ · E. Guessand ↑

Substitution 2

73'

▮

Amadou Onana

Yellow Card

74'

⇄

T. Mings ↓ · P. Torres ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

J. Sancho ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 4

75'

⇄

I. Maatsen ↓ · L. Digne ↑

Substitution 5

F. Wirtz ↓ · H. Ekitike ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

77'

80'

▮

Morgan Rogers

Yellow Card

Dominik Szoboszlai

Yellow Card

▮

87'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Liverpool beat Aston Villa 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.09 to 0.31. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 10, 4 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 4 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Salah (45'), R. Gravenberch (58').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.10 units (Brier 0.113).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.67	—	67%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Home Win	1.66	—	65%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
BTTS No	2.38	—	49%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.50	—	46%	Cashed	+1.50	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.40	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.64	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.41	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.50	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.21	—	86%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.27	—	65%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Under 0.5	19.00	—	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	94%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.55	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.18	—	77%	Cashed	+0.18	Cashed
Away Win	5.20	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.02	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.10u	−24% ROI