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Home › Spain › La Liga › Real Madrid — Rayo Vallecano

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sun 01 Feb · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
W D D W W Away · last 5
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium · Madrid Referee I. Diaz
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 45% · book 2.31 ✗
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 53% · book 1.94 ✓
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 55% · book 1.73 ✓
Total goals
3
2 · 1
xG (open play)
2.14 – 0.96
Δ +1.18
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 6.10 — +4.3% better than the market.

Real Madrid enters this clash with strong home momentum, boasting a potent attack that outmatches Rayo Vallecano's defense. Their recent form shows resilience and sharp finishing, while Rayo struggles for consistency away. The tactical edge lies with Madrid's compact block and pressing intensity, likely to exploit Vallecano's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect a lively tempo given the goal-friendly odds, favoring a confident home side pushing for control.

  • Home attacking prowess vs away defensive gaps
  • Recent form advantage for Real Madrid
  • High pace and goal potential suggested by market

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Draw
Draw @ 6.10 ✗ Lost
AI 17% Implied 16% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

REA 4-4-2 · RAY 4-2-3-1
REA · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · RAY 1 Courtois 8 Valverde 17 Asencio 24 Huijsen 6 Camavinga 30 Mastantuono 15 Güler 14 Tchouaméni 5 Bellingham 10 Mbappé ⚽ 7 Júnior ⚽ 13 Batalla 2 Rațiu 24 Lejeune 32 Mendy 3 Chavarría 6 Ciss 15 Gumbau 12 Akhomach 7 Palazón 18 García 19 Frutos ⚽
Subs used · REA
10' Diaz ↑ · Bellingham ↓
46' Ceballos ↑ · Asencio ↓
60' Garcia ↑ · Mastantuono ↓
77' Alaba ↑ · Huijsen ↓
77' Rodrygo ↑ · Guler ↓
Subs used · RAY
56' Diaz ↑ · de Frutos ↓
56' Valentin ↑ · Gumbau ↓
77' Pacha ↑ · Garcia ↓
83' Felipe ↑ · Palazon ↓
84' Martin ↑ · Akhomach ↓

Statistics

REA 2 – 1 RAY
57%
Possession (%)
43%
2.14
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.96
16
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
4
6
Shots off Target
4
12
Shots Inside Box
4
9
Corner Kicks
4
1
Offsides
1
6
Fouls
18
89%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
2
Yellow Cards
8
3
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match events

25 · 2 – 1
B. Diaz ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
10'
Vinicius Junior
Assist · B. Diaz · 1–0
⚽
15'
Half-time · 1 – 0
D. Ceballos ↓ · R. Asencio ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
46'
49'
⚽
J. de Frutos
Assist · A. Garcia · 1–1
53'
▮
Gerard Gumbau
Yellow Card
56'
⇄
P. Diaz ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑
Substitution 1
56'
⇄
O. Valentin ↓ · G. Gumbau ↑
Substitution 2
57'
▮
Josep Chavarría
Yellow Card
G. Garcia ↓ · F. Mastantuono ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
65'
▮
Isi Palazón
Yellow Card
Dani Ceballos
Yellow Card
▮
69'
72'
▮
Óscar Valentín
Yellow Card
D. Alaba ↓ · D. Huijsen ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
77'
Rodrygo ↓ · A. Guler ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
77'
77'
⇄
Pacha ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 3
80'
▮
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Red Card
82'
▮
Augusto Batalla
Yellow Card
Vinícius Júnior
Yellow Card
▮
83'
83'
▮
Ilias Akhomach
Yellow Card
83'
⇄
Luiz Felipe ↓ · I. Palazon ↑
Substitution 4
84'
⇄
C. Martin ↓ · I. Akhomach ↑
Substitution 5
K. Mbappe (P)
Penalty · 2–1
⚽
90'
90+9'
▮
Alfonso Espino
Yellow Card
90+13'
▮
Josep Chavarría
Yellow Card
90+13'
▮
Josep Chavarría
Red Card
Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.14 to 0.96. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 10 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Vinicius Junior (15'), J. de Frutos (49'), K. Mbappe (90'). Pathé Ismaël Ciss was sent off in the 80' minute. Josep Chavarría was sent off in the 90+13' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.12 units (Brier 0.078).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.31 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.94 — 53% Cashed +0.94 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.73 — 55% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
BTTS No 1.97 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.67 — 34% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.32 — 77% Cashed +0.32 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.07 — 94% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.52 — 66% Cashed +0.52 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 — 77% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Draw 6.10 — 17% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.17 — 85% Cashed +0.17 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.03 — 96% Cashed +0.03 Cashed
Double Chance X2 4.00 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.60 — 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 0.5 19.50 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 12.00 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 6.80 — 6% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −6.12u −36% ROI
Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – RAY @ 6.10
+4.3%
Edge
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