Celta Vigo vs Valencia 4:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.84 — +12.6% better than the market.

Celta Vigo holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a notable home advantage, suggesting they can control the game tempo. Their defensive solidity contrasts with Valencia's slightly weaker backline, giving Celta a pressing edge. Recent form is mixed for both, but Celta's home momentum and better chance creation hint at a tight contest with limited goals.

Home defensive resilience vs away attack
Moderate pace expected from odds
Form slightly favors Valencia but home edge prevails

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.84 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

CEL 3-4-3 · VAL 3-5-2

CEL · 3-4-3 3-5-2 · VAL

19 Swedberg

Subs used · CEL

28'

Duran ↑ ·

Swedberg ↓

67'

Alvarez ↑ ·

Zaragoza ↓

67'

El Abdellaoui ↑ ·

Iglesias ↓

81'

Fernandez ↑ ·

Rodriguez ↓

81'

Aspas ↑

Subs used · VAL

57'

Ramazani ↑ ·

Beltran ↓

57'

Rioja ↑ ·

Correia ↓

66'

Tarrega ↑ ·

Foulquier ↓

66'

Danjuma ↑ ·

Guerra ↓

81'

Lopez ↑ ·

Copete ↓

Statistics

CEL 4 – 1 VAL

40%

Possession (%)

60%

2.64

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.72

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

19 · 4 – 1

P. Duran ↓ · W. Swedberg ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

28'

B. Iglesias (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

33'

Half-time · 1 – 0

53'

▮

Hugo Duro

Yellow Card

57'

⇄

L. Ramazani ↓ · L. Beltran ↑

Substitution 1

57'

⇄

L. Rioja ↓ · T. Correia ↑

Substitution 2

B. Iglesias

Assist · P. Duran · 2–0

⚽

59'

62'

▮

Largie Ramazani

Yellow Card

66'

⇄

C. Tarrega ↓ · D. Foulquier ↑

Substitution 3

66'

⇄

A. Danjuma ↓ · J. Guerra ↑

Substitution 4

H. Alvarez ↓ · B. Zaragoza ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

J. El Abdellaoui ↓ · B. Iglesias ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

67'

70'

⚽

Pepelu

2–1

74'

▮

José Copete

Yellow Card

Javi Rodríguez

Yellow Card

▮

79'

M. Fernandez ↓ · J. Rodriguez ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

81'

I. Aspas ↓ ·

Substitution 5

⇄

81'

⇄

D. Lopez ↓ · J. Copete ↑

Substitution 5

J. El Abdellaoui

3–1

⚽

83'

H. Alvarez

Assist · I. Aspas · 4–1

⚽

90'

Full-time · 4 – 1

Match recap

Celta Vigo beat Valencia 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.64 to 1.72. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 5 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: B. Iglesias (33'), B. Iglesias (59'), Pepelu (70'), J. El Abdellaoui (83'), H. Alvarez (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.51 units (Brier 0.218).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.84	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.92	—	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.05	—	56%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.21	—	39%	Cashed	+1.21	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.94	—	44%	Cashed	+0.94	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.87	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.30	—	35%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.27	—	83%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.40	—	65%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.43	—	56%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.27	—	81%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.09	—	88%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.45	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.10	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.10	—	19%	Cashed	+3.10	Cashed
Away Win	4.30	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.51u	−9% ROI

Celta Vigo vs Valencia 4:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled