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Home › Spain › La Liga › Atletico Madrid — Real Madrid

Match Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid September 27, 2025 — Result and Stats

Spain   /   La Liga
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W L
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 14:15
5:2
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
W L W W W Away · last 5
Referee Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 70% · book 1.57 ✓
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 60% · book 1.76 ✓
Hit
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 59% · book 1.60 ✓
Total goals
7
5 · 2
xG (open play)
2.31 – 0.58
Δ +1.73
Possession
37% – 63%
AI accuracy
6 / 10
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

This clash features Atletico Madrid's solid defensive setup at home against Real Madrid's potent and consistent attack on the road. Atletico's recent form shows resilience but limited scoring, while Real Madrid arrives on a strong winning streak with a high scoring output and tight defense. The game is likely to be competitive with chances at both ends, but Real Madrid's attacking edge and momentum suggest they have a slight advantage. Expect a match with goals and a good possibility of both teams scoring. The odds reflect a balanced contest with value seen in backing Real Madrid and goals over 2.5.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · REA 4-2-3-1
ATM · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · REA 13 Oblak 14 Llorente 24 Normand ⚽ 15 Lenglet 17 Hancko 20 Simeone 8 Barrios 6 Koke 23 González 9 Sørloth ⚽ 19 Álvarez ⚽ 1 Courtois 2 Carvajal 3 Militão 24 Huijsen 18 Carreras 8 Valverde 14 Tchouaméni 15 Güler ⚽ 5 Bellingham 7 Júnior 10 Mbappé ⚽
Subs used · ATM
67' Gallagher ↑ · Sorloth ↓
83' Griezmann ↑ · Gonzalez ↓
83' Galan ↑ · Hancko ↓
90+2' Baena ↑ · Simeone ↓
90+2' Molina ↑ · Alvarez ↓
Subs used · REA
46' Asencio ↑ · Militao ↓
59' Camavinga ↑ · Carvajal ↓
59' Mastantuono ↑ · Guler ↓
70' Rodrygo ↑ · Bellingham ↓
89' Garcia ↑ · Huijsen ↓

📊 Statistics

ATM 5 – 2 REA
37%
Possession (%)
63%
2.31
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.58
13
Total Shots
6
7
Shots on Target
2
4
Shots off Target
2
8
Shots Inside Box
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
1
17
Fouls
14
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
5
Yellow Cards
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2

⏱ Match events

26 · 5 – 2
R. Le Normand
Assist · G. Simeone · 1–0
⚽
14'
Alexander Sørloth
Yellow Card
▮
22'
25'
⚽
K. Mbappe
Assist · A. Guler · 1–1
36'
⚽
A. Guler
Assist · Vinicius Junior · 1–2
Nicolás González
Yellow Card
▮
40'
A. Sorloth
Assist · Koke · 2–2
⚽
45'
Half-time · 2 – 2
46'
⇄
R. Asencio ↓ · Eder Militao ↑
Substitution 1
50'
▮
Arda Güler
Yellow Card
J. Alvarez (P)
Penalty · 3–2
⚽
51'
Clément Lenglet
Yellow Card
▮
56'
58'
▮
Raúl Asencio
Yellow Card
59'
⇄
E. Camavinga ↓ · D. Carvajal ↑
Substitution 2
59'
⇄
F. Mastantuono ↓ · A. Guler ↑
Substitution 3
62'
▮
Álvaro Carreras
Yellow Card
J. Alvarez
4–2
⚽
63'
C. Gallagher ↓ · A. Sorloth ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
67'
70'
⇄
Rodrygo ↓ · J. Bellingham ↑
Substitution 4
Giuliano Simeone
Yellow Card
▮
82'
A. Griezmann ↓ · N. Gonzalez ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
83'
J. Galan ↓ · D. Hancko ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
83'
89'
⇄
G. Garcia ↓ · D. Huijsen ↑
Substitution 5
A. Griezmann
Assist · A. Baena · 5–2
⚽
90'
A. Baena ↓ · G. Simeone ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+2'
N. Molina ↓ · J. Alvarez ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90+2'
Conor Gallagher
Yellow Card
▮
90+5'
90+6'
▮
Franco Mastantuono
Yellow Card
Full-time · 5 – 2

Match recap

Atletico Madrid beat Real Madrid 5–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 63% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.31 to 0.58. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 6, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 5 from 2.31 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 9 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: R. Le Normand (14'), K. Mbappe (25'), A. Guler (36'), A. Sorloth (45'), J. Alvarez (51'), J. Alvarez (63'), A. Griezmann (90').

Model audit for this match: of 10 graded markets, 6 landed and 4 missed, for a net +1.22 units (Brier 0.217).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

10 · 6 W · 4 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.57 — 70% Cashed +0.57 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.76 — 60% Cashed +0.76 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.60 — 59% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.47 — 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 2.11 — 40% Cashed +1.11 Cashed
AH Away 0 1.84 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.90 — 34% Cashed +1.90 Cashed
Draw 3.75 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 2.51 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.28 — 75% Cashed +0.28 Cashed
Total · 10 markets @ 1u each — — — 6 W · 4 L +1.22u +12% ROI