Aston Villa vs Burnley 2:1 — Match Review & Stats

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.20 — +5.6% better than the market.

Aston Villa vs Burnley — betting preview

Villa bring the stronger home platform and steadier defensive shape, while Burnley’s away phase relies more on moments and restarts. Expect the hosts to control territory and shot volume with a measured tempo; Burnley’s best route comes via transitions and set pieces. If Villa score first, the game can open into a two-to-three goal script. Our numbers lean Villa-sided outcomes, a modest preference for overs in the main band, and a cautious stance against both teams scoring.

Main risks: an early Burnley goal flipping the state; finishing variance on limited chances; late chase scenarios altering totals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.20 ✗ Lost

AI 31% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

Lineups

AST 4-2-3-1 · BUR 5-4-1

AST · 4-2-3-1 5-4-1 · BUR

11 Watkins

Subs used · AST

67'

Buendia ↑ ·

Watkins ↓

67'

Guessand ↑ ·

McGinn ↓

84'

Lindelof ↑ ·

Cash ↓

84'

Barkley ↑ ·

Malen ↓

90+10'

Maatsen ↑

90'

Onana ↑ ·

Bogarde ↓

Subs used · BUR

59'

Bruun Larsen ↑ ·

Tchaouna ↓

59'

Broja ↑ ·

Anthony ↓

69'

Ugochukwu ↑ ·

Foster ↓

82'

Flemming ↑ ·

Laurent ↓

90+10'

Worrall ↑ ·

Esteve ↓

Statistics

AST 2 – 1 BUR

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.37

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.42

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match events

18 · 2 – 1

17'

▮

Lyle Foster

Yellow Card

D. Malen

Assist · B. Kamara · 1–0

⚽

25'

Half-time · 1 – 0

Lucas Digne

Yellow Card

▮

53'

59'

⇄

J. Bruun Larsen ↓ · L. Tchaouna ↑

Substitution 1

59'

⇄

A. Broja ↓ · J. Anthony ↑

Substitution 2

D. Malen

Assist · M. Rogers · 2–0

⚽

63'

E. Buendia ↓ · O. Watkins ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

67'

E. Guessand ↓ · J. McGinn ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

67'

69'

⇄

L. Ugochukwu ↓ · L. Foster ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⚽

L. Ugochukwu

Assist · Q. Hartman · 2–1

82'

⇄

Z. Flemming ↓ · J. Laurent ↑

Substitution 4

V. Lindelof ↓ · M. Cash ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

84'

R. Barkley ↓ · D. Malen ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

A. Onana ↓ · L. Bogarde ↑

Substitution 6

⇄

90'

Emiliano Buendía

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Emiliano Martínez

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

I. Maatsen ↓ ·

Substitution 5

⇄

90+10'

⇄

J. Worrall ↓ · M. Esteve ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Aston Villa beat Burnley 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.37 to 0.42. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Malen (25'), D. Malen (63'), L. Ugochukwu (78').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 3 landed and 4 missed, for a net -1.77 units (Brier 0.143).

Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 3 W · 4 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.92	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.61	—	63%	Cashed	+0.61	Cashed
Away Win	6.41	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.20	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Team Total Over 0.5	1.70	—	58%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.92	—	52%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Draw	4.30	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	3 W · 4 L	−1.77u	−25% ROI

Aston Villa vs Burnley 2:1: Match Review & Stats

Model verdict

Aston Villa vs Burnley — betting preview

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

⏱ Match events

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

Lineups

Statistics

Match events

Bet recap · markets settled