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Home › England › Premier League › Aston Villa — Burnley

Predictions by Market: Aston Villa vs Burnley

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Aston Villa
Aston Villa
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 13:00
2:1
Full-time
Burnley
Burnley
L L D L D Away · last 5
Villa Park · Birmingham Referee Andrew Kitchen, England

Outcome probabilities

Home Win · AST
63%
Best 1.62
Draw
21%
Best 3.90
Away Win · BUR
16%
Best 5.75
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 3.20
Fair odds
3.23
book 3.20 · +5.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 31% · EV +5.6%

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
✓ Home Win Best in group
Probability 63%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
✓ Away Win
Probability 16%
Odds 6.41
Show model details
Implied probability 15.6%
Bet quality Low
✓ Draw
Probability 21%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 2 markets
✓ Over 3.5
Probability 31%
Odds 3.20
Show model details
Implied probability 31.3%
Bet quality Low
✓ Over 2.5 Best in group
Probability 52%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low
Team Totals 1 market
✓ Away Team Total Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 58%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 1 market
✓ BTTS No Best in group
Probability 54%
Odds 1.92
Show model details
Implied probability 52.1%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
AST – BUR @ 3.20
+5.6%
Edge
Forecast →