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Prognosist
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⚽ Football 57 + Value 23 📈 Forecasts
Football Germany Germany Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen — Hamburger SV

Match Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV May 16, 2026

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Bayer Leverkusen
Bayer Leverkusen
Home · last 5 L W W L D
Kick-off
Sat 16 May · 13:30
1:1
Full-time
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
L L W W D Away · last 5
BayArena · Leverkusen Referee Tobias Stieler, Germany
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 53% · book 2.15
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 43% · book 2.30
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 57% · book 1.60
Total goals
2
1 · 1
xG (open play)
3.15 – 1.79
Δ +1.36
Possession
60% – 40%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 2.15 — +14.7% better than the market.

Bayer Leverkusen enters this clash with a clear quality edge and home momentum, boasting a strong defensive record that should challenge Hamburger SV's less potent attack. The home side's pressing and compact block are likely to stifle the visitors, who have struggled to maintain consistency recently. Expect a controlled tempo with Leverkusen dictating play and creating chances against a vulnerable defense.

  • Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
  • Leverkusen's recent form and home advantage
  • Moderate pace suggested by goal market odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 2.15 ✓ Cashed
AI 53% Implied 47% +1.15u
+115%
ROI on stake

Lineups

BAY 3-4-2-1 · HAM 3-5-2
Subs used · BAY
62' Hofmann ↑ · Tillman
62' Arthur ↑ · Culbreath
62' Ben Seghir ↑ · Andrich
84' Lucas ↑ · Garcia
Subs used · HAM
63' Muheim ↑ · Philippe
77' Poulsen ↑ · Stange
77' Balde ↑ · Vieira
77' Nandja ↑ · Omari
89' Mikelbrencis ↑ · Torunarigha

📊 Statistics

BAY 11 HAM
60%
Possession (%)
40%
3.15
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.79
26
Total Shots
19
8
Shots on Target
6
13
Shots off Target
8
19
Shots Inside Box
11
8
Corner Kicks
3
3
Offsides
0
8
Fouls
11
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
1
Yellow Cards
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match events

15 · 1 – 1
24'
J. Torunarigha
Yellow Card
P. Schick (P)
Penalty · Assist · P. Schick · 1–0
25'
Half-time · 1 – 0
61'
F. Vieira
Assist · N. Capaldo · 1–1
J. Hofmann ↓ · M. Tillman ↑
Substitution 1
62'
Arthur ↓ · M. Culbreath ↑
Substitution 2
62'
E. Ben Seghir ↓ · R. Andrich ↑
Substitution 3
62'
63'
M. Muheim ↓ · R. Philippe ↑
Substitution 1
Arthur
Yellow Card
66'
77'
Y. Poulsen ↓ · O. Stange ↑
Substitution 2
77'
F. Balde ↓ · F. Vieira ↑
Substitution 3
77'
S. Nandja ↓ · W. Omari ↑
Substitution 4
78'
N. Capaldo
Yellow Card
J. Quansah
Assist · A. Garcia · 2–1
78'
Lucas ↓ · A. Garcia ↑
Substitution 4
84'
89'
W. Mikelbrencis ↓ · J. Torunarigha ↑
Substitution 5
Full-time · 1 – 1

Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Under 3.5 2.15 2.20 53% Cashed +1.15 Cashed
BTTS No 2.30 2.49 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS Yes 1.60 1.50 57% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Over 3.5 1.81 1.67 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.75 3.72 33% Cashed +2.75 Cashed
Under 1.5 8.00 8.33 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 6.81 6.13 16% Cashed +5.81 Cashed
Home Win 1.29 1.30 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.07 1.08 93% Cashed +0.07 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.10 1.10 77% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.08 1.05 86% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.98 3.55 23% Cashed +2.98 Cashed
Over 2.5 1.30 1.25 67% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 10.60 8.26 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Away 0 7.00 6.41 7% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each 7 W · 8 L +5.44u +36% ROI

Community forecasts

What other tipsters predicted · 1 in the sample
MA
@maksymovmp
ROI -20.3%
1 week ago
Germany Bundesliga Sa 16 May · 13:30
Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen
1 : 1 final
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
Goals Over/Under First Half Under 0.5 @ 5.15
Stake 22 coins
Payout 113 credited
P/L +91 +414% vs stake
Won
Best bet of the night · Under 3.5
BAY – HAM @ 2.15
+14.7%
Edge
Forecast →