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Home › England › Premier League › Newcastle — Nottingham Forest

Match Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest October 5, 2025 — Result and Stats

England   /   Premier League
Newcastle
Newcastle
Home · last 5 L W D W L
Kick-off
Sun 05 Oct · 13:00
2:0
Full-time
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
W W D L D Away · last 5
St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne Referee Peter Bankes, England
Hit
Away Team Total Under 0.5
Away Team Total Under 0.5
AI 52% · book 2.50 ✓
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 51% · book 2.16 ✓
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 27% · book 4.10 ✗
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
3.03 – 0.27
Δ +2.76
Possession
52% – 48%
AI accuracy
4 / 7
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Newcastle vs Nottingham Forest — betting preview

Newcastle bring the stronger home platform and the cleaner defensive shape, while Forest’s attacking output on the road looks limited. Expect the hosts to control territory and shot volume, with Forest leaning on moments and set pieces. Game state should stay fairly tight unless an early goal flips the script; that keeps unders and selective fades of a Forest goal attractive, with Newcastle-favored outcomes leading the 1X2 picture.

Main risks: early Forest strike swinging momentum; penalty/VAR variance; late chasing that can inflate totals.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

⛀ Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · NOT 3-4-3
NEW · 4-3-3 3-4-3 · NOT 1 Pope 2 Trippier 12 Thiaw 4 Botman 33 Burn 39 Guimarães ⚽ 8 Tonali 7 Joelinton 20 Elanga 27 Woltemade ⚽ 10 Gordon 26 Sels 23 Jair 31 Milenković 4 Morato 37 Savona 22 Yates 8 Anderson 3 Williams 10 Gibbs-White 11 Wood 14 Ndoye
Subs used · NEW
70' Barnes ↑ · Gordon ↓
70' Murphy ↑ · Elanga ↓
90+2' Osula ↑ · Woltemade ↓
90+2' Miley ↑ · Joelinton ↓
Subs used · NOT
64' Hudson-Odoi ↑ · Yates ↓
64' Jesus ↑ · Wood ↓
65' Hutchinson ↑ · Ndoye ↓
77' Bakwa ↑ · Morato ↓

📊 Statistics

NEW 2 – 0 NOT
52%
Possession (%)
48%
3.03
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.27
18
Total Shots
5
9
Shots on Target
4
4
Shots off Target
1
13
Shots Inside Box
4
8
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
2
16
Fouls
15
83%
Pass Accuracy (%)
82%
0
Yellow Cards
4
4
Goalkeeper Saves
7

⏱ Match events

14 · 2 – 0
32'
▮
Ryan Yates
Yellow Card
34'
▮
Neco Williams
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
Bruno Guimaraes
Assist · D. Burn · 1–0
⚽
58'
64'
⇄
C. Hudson-Odoi ↓ · R. Yates ↑
Substitution 1
64'
⇄
Igor Jesus ↓ · C. Wood ↑
Substitution 2
65'
⇄
O. Hutchinson ↓ · D. Ndoye ↑
Substitution 3
68'
▮
Morato
Yellow Card
H. Barnes ↓ · A. Gordon ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
70'
J. Murphy ↓ · A. Elanga ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
70'
77'
⇄
D. Bakwa ↓ · Morato ↑
Substitution 4
83'
▮
Elliot Anderson
Yellow Card
N. Woltemade (P)
Penalty · 2–0
⚽
84'
W. Osula ↓ · N. Woltemade ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
90+2'
L. Miley ↓ · Joelinton ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
90+2'
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.03 to 0.27. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 5, 9 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Bruno Guimaraes (58'), N. Woltemade (84').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 4 landed and 3 missed, for a net +1.45 units (Brier 0.151).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 4 W · 3 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Away Team Total Under 0.5 2.50 — 52% Cashed +1.50 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.16 — 51% Cashed +1.16 Cashed
Under 1.5 4.10 — 27% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.06 — 50% Cashed +1.06 Cashed
Away Win 5.25 — 20% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.73 — 58% Cashed +0.73 Cashed
Draw 4.22 — 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each — — — 4 W · 3 L +1.45u +21% ROI