Match Union Berlin vs Werder Bremen March 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.86 — +7.6% better than the market.

Union Berlin hold a clear quality edge and benefit from a solid home defensive setup that challenges Werder Bremen's attack. Despite mixed recent form, Union's home momentum and tactical discipline could stifle Bremen's attempts to break through. The pace hints at a moderately controlled game, favoring a compact block and set-piece opportunities.

Home defensive resilience versus away offensive pressure
Union's slightly better recent form and home edge
Moderate tempo suggesting fewer open chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.86 ✗ Lost

AI 58% Implied 54% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

UNI 3-5-2 · WER 4-3-3

UNI · 3-5-2 4-3-3 · WER

10 Ansah

Subs used · UNI

63'

Woo-Yeong ↑ ·

Kemlein ↓

71'

Skarke ↑ ·

Ansah ↓

82'

Trimmel ↑ ·

Haberer ↓

82'

Burke ↑ ·

Nsoki ↓

Subs used · WER

46'

Bittencourt ↑ ·

Topp ↓

46'

Malatini ↑ ·

Stark ↓

82'

Njinmah ↑ ·

Grull ↓

90+2'

Covic ↑ ·

Schmid ↓

90+3'

Schmidt ↑ ·

Sugawara ↓

📊 Statistics

UNI 1 – 4 WER

26%

Possession (%)

74%

1.19

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.13

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

63%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

19 · 1 – 4

16'

▮

Niklas Stark

Yellow Card

D. Kohn (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

18'

András Schäfer

Red Card

▮

19'

31'

⚽

O. Deman

Assist · J. Stage · 1–1

36'

▮

Keke Topp

Yellow Card

36'

⚽

J. Stage

Assist · C. Puertas · 1–2

Half-time · 1 – 2

46'

⇄

L. Bittencourt ↓ · K. Topp ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

J. Malatini ↓ · N. Stark ↑

Substitution 2

Jeong Woo-Yeong ↓ · A. Kemlein ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

63'

66'

⚽

M. Grull

Assist · R. Schmid · 1–3

Leopold Querfeld

Yellow Card

▮

69'

T. Skarke ↓ · I. Ansah ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

71'

79'

▮

Julián Malatini

Yellow Card

C. Trimmel ↓ · J. Haberer ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

82'

O. Burke ↓ · S. Nsoki ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

82'

⇄

J. Njinmah ↓ · M. Grull ↑

Substitution 3

90'

⚽

P. Covic

Assist · L. Bittencourt · 1–4

90+2'

⇄

P. Covic ↓ · R. Schmid ↑

Substitution 4

90+3'

⇄

I. Schmidt ↓ · Y. Sugawara ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 4

Match recap

Werder Bremen won 4–1 away at Union Berlin. At half-time it was 1–2.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 74% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.13 to 1.19. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 9, 5 on target. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 4 from 2.13 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Kohn (18'), O. Deman (31'), J. Stage (36'), M. Grull (66'), P. Covic (90'). András Schäfer was sent off in the 19' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.51 units (Brier 0.316).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.30	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.86	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.02	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.10	—	42%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.84	—	47%	Cashed	+0.84	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.61	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.70	—	48%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.45	—	22%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.45	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.32	—	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.35	—	68%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Draw	3.46	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.55	—	22%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Away Win	3.44	—	22%	Cashed	+2.44	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.51u	+3% ROI