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Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › Hamburger SV — Union Berlin

Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin 3:2: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Home · last 5 L L W W D
Kick-off
Sat 14 Feb · 14:30
3:2
Full-time
Union Berlin
Union Berlin
L L D W W Away · last 5
Volksparkstadion · Hamburger Referee Florian Badstubner, Germany
Miss
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 50% · book 2.02 ✗
Miss
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 56% · book 1.81 ✗
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 44% · book 2.17 ✓
Total goals
5
3 · 2
xG (open play)
1.82 – 2.11
Δ −0.29
Possession
57% – 43%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.56 — +8.1% better than the market.

Hamburger SV hosts Union Berlin in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but the home side's defensive solidity and recent home momentum could keep things tight. Hamburger's compact block and disciplined defense may frustrate Union's attacking attempts, despite Union's better offensive numbers. The form gap favors the home team, suggesting they have a pressing edge in this encounter.

  • Hamburger's strong defensive setup vs Union's attack
  • Home momentum and better recent form
  • Balanced pace hinted by moderate goal expectations

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 1.56 ✗ Lost
AI 69% Implied 64% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

HAM 3-4-3 · UNI 3-4-2-1
HAM · 3-4-3 3-4-2-1 · UNI 1 Fernandes 24 Capaldo ⚽ 44 Vušković 25 Torunarigha 18 Jatta 20 Vieira 21 Remberg 28 Muheim 11 Königsdörffer ⚽ 9 Glatzel 27 Otele 1 Rønnow 5 Doekhi 14 Querfeld ⚽ 34 N'Soki 28 Trimmel 8 Khedira 6 Kemlein 39 Köhn 11 Jeong 10 Ansah 23 Ilić ⚽
Subs used · HAM
72' Poulsen ↑ · Glatzel ↓
72' Dompe ↑ · Otele ↓
74' Gocholeishvili ↑ · Jatta ↓
87' Mikelbrencis ↑ · Konigsdorffer ↓
87' Elfadli ↑ · Capaldo ↓
Subs used · UNI
61' Skarke ↑ · Ansah ↓
61' Burcu ↑ · Woo-Yeong ↓
75' Kral ↑ · Khedira ↓
83' Schafer ↑ · Kemlein ↓
83' Burke ↑ · Nsoki ↓

Statistics

HAM 3 – 2 UNI
57%
Possession (%)
43%
1.82
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.11
13
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Target
5
5
Shots off Target
5
11
Shots Inside Box
10
6
Corner Kicks
3
2
Offsides
3
10
Fouls
6
78%
Pass Accuracy (%)
71%
3
Yellow Cards
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1

Match events

18 · 3 – 2
28'
⚽
L. Querfeld (P)
Penalty · 0–1
R. Konigsdorffer
Assist · R. Glatzel · 1–1
⚽
35'
N. Capaldo
Assist · B. Jatta · 2–1
⚽
45'
Half-time · 2 – 1
Luka Vušković
Yellow Card
▮
50'
61'
⇄
T. Skarke ↓ · I. Ansah ↑
Substitution 1
61'
⇄
L. Burcu ↓ · Jeong Woo-Yeong ↑
Substitution 2
Nicolás Capaldo
Yellow Card
▮
64'
Y. Poulsen ↓ · R. Glatzel ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
72'
J. Dompe ↓ · P. Otele ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
72'
G. Gocholeishvili ↓ · B. Jatta ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
75'
⇄
A. Kral ↓ · R. Khedira ↑
Substitution 3
R. Konigsdorffer
Assist · G. Gocholeishvili · 3–1
⚽
82'
83'
⇄
A. Schafer ↓ · A. Kemlein ↑
Substitution 4
83'
⇄
O. Burke ↓ · S. Nsoki ↑
Substitution 5
W. Mikelbrencis ↓ · R. Konigsdorffer ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
87'
D. Elfadli ↓ · N. Capaldo ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
87'
89'
⚽
A. Ilic
Assist · O. Burke · 3–2
William Mikelbrencis
Yellow Card
▮
90+7'
Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Hamburger SV beat Union Berlin 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Querfeld (28'), R. Konigsdorffer (35'), N. Capaldo (45'), R. Konigsdorffer (82'), A. Ilic (89').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -0.89 units (Brier 0.268).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS No 2.02 — 50% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.81 — 56% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 2.17 — 44% Cashed +1.17 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.84 — 50% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
AH Away 0 2.11 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 2.61 — 31% Cashed +1.61 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.84 — 31% Cashed +0.84 Cashed
Double Chance X2 1.56 — 69% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 3.03 — 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.44 — 58% Cashed +0.44 Cashed
Under 1.5 3.29 — 30% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.29 — 76% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 0.5 1.08 — 90% Cashed +0.08 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.38 — 70% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 0.5 9.50 — 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.35 — 28% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 3.5 3.75 — 24% Cashed +2.75 Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −0.89u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
HAM – UNI @ 1.56
+8.1%
Edge
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