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Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland 0:1: Match Review & Stats

England   /   Premier League Value pick inside
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest
Home · last 5 W W D L D
Kick-off
Sat 27 Sep · 16:30
0:1
Full-time
Sunderland
Sunderland
L D D W W Away · last 5
Wembley Stadium · London Referee Tony Harrington, England
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 80% · book 1.24 ✗
Hit
Under 2.5
Under 2.5
AI 65% · book 1.89 ✓
Hit
BTTS No
BTTS No
AI 55% · book 1.95 ✓
Total goals
1
0 · 1
xG (open play)
1.65 – 1.19
Δ +0.46
Possession
65% – 35%
AI accuracy
3 / 9
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 1.95 — +7.0% better than the market.

This fixture features Nottingham Forest hosting Sunderland at The City Ground. Nottingham Forest have struggled to find consistent form recently, showing a mixed pattern with some draws and losses, while Sunderland have been somewhat steadier with a couple of wins and draws. Forest’s attacking threat appears limited, and their defense has been vulnerable, especially at home. Sunderland, on the other hand, demonstrate a more solid defensive setup and a slightly better attacking edge away from home.

The home side’s advantage is moderate but not overwhelming, and the game is likely to be competitive with a modest tempo. The model leans towards a home win given the venue and Sunderland’s defensive caution, but the draw remains a realistic outcome. Goals are expected to be limited, with under 2.5 goals favored. Both teams scoring is plausible but not strongly favored.

Top value lies in the home side avoiding defeat and the under 2.5 goals market, where the odds offer some edge. Asian handicap options on the home side also present interesting opportunities given the balance of strength and venue.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No
BTTS No @ 1.95 ✓ Cashed
AI 55% Implied 51% +0.95u
+95%
ROI on stake

Lineups

NOT 4-2-3-1 · SUN 4-2-3-1
Subs used · NOT
46' Gibbs-White ↑ · Domínguez ↓
60' Jesus ↑ · Ndoye ↓
60' Hudson-Odoi ↑ · McAtee ↓
72' Hutchinson ↑ · Bakwa ↓
90' Kalimuendo ↑ · Wood ↓
Subs used · SUN
59' Traoré ↑ · Rigg ↓
59' Geertruida ↑ · Masuaku ↓
75' Ballard ↑ · Fée ↓
85' Adingra ↑ · Talbi ↓
85' Brobbey ↑ · Isidor ↓

Statistics

NOT 0 – 1 SUN
65%
Possession (%)
35%
1.65
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
1.19
22
Total Shots
11
6
Shots on Target
3
10
Shots off Target
5
15
Shots Inside Box
8
7
Corner Kicks
4
0
Offsides
1
11
Fouls
6
90%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
4
Yellow Cards
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6

Match events

17 · 0 – 1
9'
▮
Noah Sadiki
Yellow Card
31'
▮
Arthur Masuaku
Yellow Card
Nicolás Domínguez
Yellow Card
▮
36'
Nikola Milenković
Yellow Card
▮
38'
38'
⚽
Omar Alderete
Assist · Granit Xhaka · 0–1
Half-time · 0 – 1
Morgan Gibbs-White ↓ · Nicolás Domínguez ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
46'
Neco Williams
Yellow Card
▮
49'
59'
⇄
Bertrand Traoré ↓ · Chris Rigg ↑
Substitution 1
59'
⇄
Lutsharel Geertruida ↓ · Arthur Masuaku ↑
Substitution 2
Igor Jesus ↓ · Dan Ndoye ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
Callum Hudson-Odoi ↓ · James McAtee ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
60'
Omari Hutchinson ↓ · Dilane Bakwa ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
72'
75'
⇄
Daniel Ballard ↓ · Enzo Le Fée ↑
Substitution 3
Elliot Anderson
Yellow Card
▮
82'
85'
⇄
Simon Adingra ↓ · Chemsdine Talbi ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
Brian Brobbey ↓ · Wilson Isidor ↑
Substitution 5
Arnaud Kalimuendo ↓ · Chris Wood ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
90'
Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Sunderland won 1–0 away at Nottingham Forest. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 11, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Omar Alderete (38').

Model audit for this match: of 9 graded markets, 3 landed and 6 missed, for a net -0.46 units (Brier 0.369).

Bet recap · markets settled

9 · 3 W · 6 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X 1.24 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 1.89 — 65% Cashed +0.89 Cashed
BTTS No 1.95 — 55% Cashed +0.95 Cashed
AH Home 0 1.38 — 70% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home -0.5 1.88 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Team Total Over 0.5 1.21 — 75% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.88 — 55% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 3.74 — 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 4.70 — 20% Cashed +3.70 Cashed
Total · 9 markets @ 1u each — — — 3 W · 6 L −0.46u −5% ROI
Value pick of the night · BTTS No
NOT – SUN @ 1.95
+7.0%
Edge
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