P
Prognosist
Login Sign Up →
P
Login Sign Up
⚽ Football 📰 News 📈 Forecasts 📅 Today 💹 Value Bets 🏅 Tipsters 🎫 Bookmakers 🏆 Tournament
Home › Germany › Germany Bundesliga › RB Leipzig — SC Freiburg

RB Leipzig vs SC Freiburg 2:0: Match Review & Stats

Germany   /   Germany Bundesliga Value pick inside
RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Wed 14 Jan · 19:30
2:0
Full-time
SC Freiburg
SC Freiburg
W L D L W Away · last 5
Referee Robert Hartmann, Germany
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 43% · book 2.56 ✗
Miss
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 64% · book 1.66 ✗
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 55% · book 1.86 ✓
Total goals
2
2 · 0
xG (open play)
2.24 – 0.17
Δ +2.07
Possession
64% – 36%
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed

Model verdict

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.56 — +10.1% better than the market.

RB Leipzig holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a mild home advantage, suggesting they can impose their attacking rhythm. Their recent form shows some inconsistency, but they still outpace Freiburg in scoring potential. Expect a dynamic game with Leipzig's offense challenging Freiburg's defense, while Freiburg's resilience could keep the scoreline tight.

  • Leipzig's home momentum and pressing edge
  • Freiburg's compact defensive block
  • Moderate pace hinting at open play and goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 2.56 ✗ Lost
AI 43% Implied 39% −1.00u
−100%
ROI on stake

Lineups

LEI 4-3-3 · FRE 4-2-3-1
LEI · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · FRE 1 Gulácsi 17 Baku 4 Orbán ⚽ 23 Lukeba 22 Raum 24 Schlager 13 Seiwald 14 Baumgartner 27 Gomis 40 Rômulo ⚽ 20 Ouédraogo 1 Atubolu 17 Kübler 43 Ogbus 5 Jung 30 Günter 8 Eggestein 6 Osterhage 29 Treu 14 Suzuki 44 Manzambi 9 Höler
Subs used · LEI
60' Diomande ↑ · Gomis ↓
60' Nusa ↑ · Ouedraogo ↓
74' Harder ↑ · Cardoso ↓
88' Bitshiabu ↑ · Baumgartner ↓
88' Banzuzi ↑ · Lukeba ↓
Subs used · FRE
55' Grifo ↑ · Suzuki ↓
65' Beste ↑ · Treu ↓
65' Matanovic ↑ · Holer ↓
85' Makengo ↑ · Gunter ↓
85' Scherhant ↑ · Osterhage ↓

Statistics

LEI 2 – 0 FRE
64%
Possession (%)
36%
2.24
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
0.17
21
Total Shots
3
7
Shots on Target
1
6
Shots off Target
1
19
Shots Inside Box
3
7
Corner Kicks
2
0
Offsides
2
12
Fouls
16
88%
Pass Accuracy (%)
76%
0
Yellow Cards
4
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5

Match events

16 · 2 – 0
14'
▮
Yuito Suzuki
Yellow Card
Half-time · 0 – 0
52'
▮
Philipp Treu
Yellow Card
W. Orban
Assist · D. Raum · 1–0
⚽
53'
55'
⇄
V. Grifo ↓ · Y. Suzuki ↑
Substitution 1
Romulo Cardoso
2–0
⚽
56'
Y. Diomande ↓ · T. Gomis ↑
Substitution 1
⇄
60'
A. Nusa ↓ · A. Ouedraogo ↑
Substitution 2
⇄
60'
65'
⇄
J. Beste ↓ · P. Treu ↑
Substitution 2
65'
⇄
I. Matanovic ↓ · L. Holer ↑
Substitution 3
C. Harder ↓ · Romulo Cardoso ↑
Substitution 3
⇄
74'
77'
▮
Jan-Niklas Beste
Yellow Card
85'
⇄
J. Makengo ↓ · C. Gunter ↑
Substitution 4
85'
⇄
D. Scherhant ↓ · P. Osterhage ↑
Substitution 5
E. Bitshiabu ↓ · C. Baumgartner ↑
Substitution 4
⇄
88'
E. Banzuzi ↓ · C. Lukeba ↑
Substitution 5
⇄
88'
90+6'
▮
Maximilian Eggestein
Yellow Card
Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

RB Leipzig beat SC Freiburg 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.24 to 0.17. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 3, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: W. Orban (53'), Romulo Cardoso (56').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.87 units (Brier 0.168).

Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 2.56 — 43% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.66 — 64% Lost −1.00 Miss
Home Win 1.86 — 55% Cashed +0.86 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.61 — 63% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance X2 2.07 — 45% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.41 — 37% Cashed +1.41 Cashed
Under 2.5 2.42 — 36% Cashed +1.42 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.27 — 77% Cashed +0.27 Cashed
Under 3.5 1.55 — 57% Cashed +0.55 Cashed
AH Away 0 3.20 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 1.5 1.20 — 84% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Over 0.5 1.04 — 96% Cashed +0.04 Cashed
Away Win 4.30 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 4.20 — 23% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.20 — 16% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.38 — 55% Cashed +0.38 Cashed
Under 0.5 17.00 — 4% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each — — — 8 W · 9 L −3.87u −23% ROI
Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
LEI – FRE @ 2.56
+10.1%
Edge
Forecast →