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Home World UEFA Champions League Bayern München — Atalanta

Match Bayern München vs Atalanta March 18, 2026 — Result and Stats

Bayern München
Bayern München
Home · last 5 W W W L D
Kick-off
Wed 18 Mar · 20:00
4:1
Full-time
Atalanta
Atalanta
L L W L L Away · last 5
Referee Benoît Bastien, France
Hit
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 58% · book 1.90
Hit
Home Win
Home Win
AI 75% · book 1.30
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 15% · book 6.40
Total goals
5
4 · 1
xG (open play)
3.61 – 2.30
Δ +1.31
Possession
71% – 29%
AI accuracy
8 / 16
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Bayern München vs Atalanta looks like a high-level European tie, but the home side hold a very strong overall edge. Bayern arrive with far more attacking force, better rhythm and a much more reliable scoring platform, especially in home conditions where they tend to control the game early and keep pressure high. Atalanta still have enough quality to threaten in transitions and can create chances if the match opens up, but their recent form and defensive resistance look less stable for this level of challenge. The most likely script is Bayern dictating territory, producing the better chances and finishing with a clear edge, while goals remain highly live because both teams are capable of contributing to an open tempo.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

BAY 41 ATA
71%
Possession (%)
29%
3.61
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.30
25
Total Shots
14
8
Shots on Target
8
9
Shots off Target
5
15
Shots Inside Box
10
6
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
3
8
Fouls
4
93%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4

Match recap

Bayern München beat Atalanta 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 71% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 93% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.61 to 2.30. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 14, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 16 graded markets, 8 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.20 units (Brier 0.068).

Bet recap · markets settled

16 · 8 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
Over 3.5 1.90 58% Cashed +0.90 Cashed
Home Win 1.30 75% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
Draw 6.40 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 10.00 10% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.30 78% Cashed +0.30 Cashed
BTTS Yes 1.60 60% Cashed +0.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.10 91% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
AH Home -1 1.40 69% Cashed +0.40 Cashed
Under 3.5 2.10 42% Lost −1.00 Miss
BTTS No 2.40 40% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 3.40 22% Lost −1.00 Miss
Double Chance 1X 1.10 90% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
Double Chance X2 3.80 25% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.10 85% Cashed +0.10 Cashed
AH Away 0 6.00 15% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 8.00 9% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 16 markets @ 1u each 8 W · 8 L −5.20u −32% ROI