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Home › World › UEFA Champions League › Manchester City — Real Madrid

Match Manchester City vs Real Madrid March 17, 2026 — Result and Stats

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Tue 17 Mar · 20:00
1:2
Full-time
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
W W W L L Away · last 5
Referee Clement Turpin, France
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 64% · book 1.70 ✓
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 40% · book 2.70 ✓
Hit
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 21% · book 4.20 ✓
Total goals
3
1 · 2
xG (open play)
1.91 – 2.93
Δ −1.02
Possession
48% – 52%
AI accuracy
7 / 15
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read

Manchester City vs Real Madrid looks like a blockbuster tie between two elite attacking sides, but the home team still deserve the stronger billing. City bring a more stable home platform, greater control of territory and a more reliable defensive base in this matchup. Real Madrid remain extremely dangerous because of their pace, finishing quality and ability to punish mistakes, so this should stay competitive for long stretches. The most likely script is an open, high-level game with goals on both sides, but City hold the clearer edge over ninety minutes.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

📊 Statistics

MCI 1 – 2 REA
48%
Possession (%)
52%
1.91
Expected Goals (xG) expected goals
2.93
22
Total Shots
14
8
Shots on Target
7
8
Shots off Target
6
14
Shots Inside Box
10
9
Corner Kicks
6
2
Offsides
3
6
Fouls
7
92%
Pass Accuracy (%)
92%
1
Yellow Cards
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
7

Match recap

Real Madrid won 2–1 away at Manchester City. At half-time it was 1–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 2.93 to 1.91. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 22 shots to 14, 8 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 6. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net +3.60 units (Brier 0.278).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L
Market Odds Closed AI Result P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes 1.70 — 64% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
Double Chance X2 2.70 — 40% Cashed +1.70 Cashed
AH Away 0 4.20 — 21% Cashed +3.20 Cashed
Over 3.5 2.40 — 47% Lost −1.00 Miss
Over 2.5 1.50 — 71% Cashed +0.50 Cashed
Home Win 1.60 — 60% Lost −1.00 Miss
Draw 5.60 — 19% Lost −1.00 Miss
Away Win 5.60 — 21% Cashed +4.60 Cashed
Over 1.5 1.20 — 86% Cashed +0.20 Cashed
Double Chance 1X 1.20 — 79% Lost −1.00 Miss
AH Home 0 1.30 — 80% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 3.5 1.70 — 53% Cashed +0.70 Cashed
BTTS No 2.30 — 36% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 2.5 2.80 — 29% Lost −1.00 Miss
Under 1.5 5.60 — 14% Lost −1.00 Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each — — — 7 W · 8 L +3.60u +24% ROI